Putin's Attempt to Balkanize Ukraine and Draw Washington into a Vicious Cycle of Conflict Management

By Armin Sijamić

Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing multiple variants in negotiations with his American counterpart Donald Trump that would bring victory to the Kremlin in the war in Ukraine. Last week's proposal shows that one of the ideas is the Balkanization of Ukraine and "conflict management" by Moscow and Washington. Then, yesterday's news from Moscow - we reject Trump's proposal for an end to the war.

How the negotiations between Putin and Trump, or their teams, are progressing is not known to the public. It is also unclear whether Kyiv would accept everything agreed upon and whether European powers would agree to be mere observers in the division of spheres of influence in a country where, as stated by Brussels, "Europe and democracy are being defended".

The answer to these questions lies in the balance of power on the battlefield, as well as in the exact data on the available resources for this war. Since the beginning of the aggression against Ukraine, there has been talk of Kyiv's limited resources. However, the public does not know how many of its resources (material and human) Moscow has spent and how much longer it can wage this destructive and expensive war.

Putin's Proposal

Trump's victory in the November elections was good news for Putin, if for no other reason than his promise to end the war in Ukraine before entering the White House. Moreover, Trump has distanced Washington from its European allies, which is an additional asset for the Kremlin and the biggest fear for Kyiv.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Putin has multiple proposals on how to treat the war in Ukraine, even if a lasting peace acceptable to both sides is not achieved. In that case, a "frozen conflict" would require "conflict management" by Washington and Moscow in the coming years, which would force the two countries into additional contacts, negotiations, concessions, plans...

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Trump's deal with Putin on Ukraine could wipe out an entire generation of European politicians

By Armin SijamićIn another round of talks between American and Russian officials on Ukraine, a new agreement has been reached. This agreement could be a heavy blow to Kyiv and its European allies who oppose Russian aggression against Ukraine. The agreement

One of the important prerequisites for this to happen is the Balkanization of Ukraine, i.e., the fragmentation of the territory of that vast country in accordance with the meaning of the term coined about two centuries ago, and consequently in accordance with the American approach to "conflict management," which Washington has applied, for example, in the former Yugoslavia since the beginning of its disintegration.

"In principle, of course, it would be possible to discuss a provisional government in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN, the US, with European countries, of course, with our partners and friends. In order to hold democratic elections, to bring a capable government that enjoys the trust of the people to power, and then to start negotiations on a peace agreement with them," Putin said last Thursday. "I am not saying there are no other options, but this is one of the options and such a practice exists in the work of the UN," he added.

To support his proposal, Putin cited East Timor, Papua New Guinea, and parts of the former Yugoslavia, without specifying which, as examples of countries where "there has been what is called an external government, an interim administration" several times within the framework of United Nations peacekeeping forces.

A few days later, yesterday, it was announced from Moscow that they reject Trump's proposal for an end to the war in Ukraine, a proposal about which the public does not know everything, because it does not satisfy Russia's interests. The Kremlin had counted on this, so Putin prepared the international and domestic public with the aforementioned proposal.

Targeting Zelensky, Weakening Ukraine

Putin's proposal to introduce a provisional government in Ukraine is more than a plan to remove President Volodymyr Zelensky from office, as his term has expired. The removal of Zelensky from power this time does not come from positions like those in Washington, but has a different goal.

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Trump and Putin's negotiations on Ukraine: Is an agreement possible without Kyiv's participation?

By Armin SijamićYesterday, US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin spoke by phone. The main topic was Ukraine, although the two presidents are not too interested in negotiating

Sowing divisions in Ukraine, given its history and the balance of power within the Ukrainian political, military, and business elite, can cause various demands to emerge across that large country regarding the governance of its parts, considering the status of Zelensky or a new president.

This statement by Putin is only a few days old, but the idea has been present for a decade. A way to control Kyiv from within is part of the Minsk agreements, which were negotiated between Ukraine and Russia about ten years ago, with the mediation of France and Germany.

One part of the agreement was interpreted by the Kremlin as a veto right for Russian separatists from eastern Ukraine on all Kyiv decisions, a right attributed to entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995 and which is being attempted, with varying degrees of success, to be imposed on Skopje, Pristina, and Podgorica.

Accepting such a proposal means tying a country's hands and forcing it to negotiate indefinitely with those who want to destroy it, with mediators. In the case of the Minsk agreement, it meant that Ukraine remained stuck between the West and Moscow, as a place where decisions are implemented for the mere survival of the political and economic system, and as a respite until a new conflict in new geopolitical circumstances.

Kyiv reacted fiercely to Putin's new proposal. In addition to Zelensky, other officials also spoke out and did not mince words. One of them told Putin to "take some pills to stimulate his brain activity".

Zelensky assessed Putin's proposal as seeking reasons not to end the war in Ukraine. "He is afraid of negotiations with Ukraine. He is afraid of negotiations with me personally, and by excluding the Ukrainian government, he suggests that Ukraine is not an independent actor for him," Zelensky said.

The West's Response

Putin's proposal has not impressed Washington much so far. According to Reuters, an unnamed US National Security Council official, when asked about Putin's statement, said that the governance of Ukraine is determined by its constitution and its people.

Kyiv's European allies will now reject such a proposal. This applies primarily to the United Kingdom and France. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron have repeatedly accused Russia of not wanting to make a fair peace in Ukraine. And Starmer, shortly before Putin's aforementioned proposal, said that the Russian leader "is playing games" and "buying time".

Whether Putin is buying time or playing games that divide the West, or both, may be a dilemma. But there is no doubt that Putin wants to cripple Ukraine. Putin's aforementioned proposal, which is supposedly meant to help Ukraine, sounds like a mockery of common sense. In it, among other things, the Russian leader calls for "democratic elections" which he does not want to organize in Russia.

Also, there is no doubt that Putin feels freer since Trump's return to the White House, and it seems, at least publicly, that he is leading their game. His demands and proposals seem to come from a position of power, although it is unclear whether he is bluffing while hoping for a quick peace in Ukraine.

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Putin could get something much more valuable from Trump than parts of Ukrainian territory

By Armin SijamićUS President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin want a meeting. Diplomats from the two countries are already working to make it happen. And while many in the West are wondering what Washington and Trump will get out of that meeting, in Russia

Putin has presented proposals and demands to Trump, counting on the fact that more agreements with the White House guarantee that Moscow will not be isolated from the West, i.e., from Washington and the countries that unconditionally follow Trump, obliging Americans to constant contact and joint action with the Kremlin. In practice, this means that Ukraine is to be deprived of its right to decide and that the aspirations of Ukrainians to move towards the West, which they were promised before the start of Russian aggression, are to be thwarted. Yesterday's rejection of Trump's peace proposal proves this and puts Trump in a position to offer even more to the Kremlin, listen to the Russian side's proposals, or simply end the negotiations.