From Lührmann to Fajon: Sanctions from Banja Luka, another test for BiH

By Amina Čorbo-Zećo

Media in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been buzzing for days about the sanctions imposed by Slovenia on Milorad Dodik. As if by an unwritten rule, Dodik did not wait long to respond. This was followed by an announcement from Republika Srpska regarding counter-measures, sanctions against Slovenian Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon and President Nataša Pirc Musar.

It is absolutely clear that entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina have no authority in foreign policy, nor can they impose sanctions on international officials. However, in practice, the well-known pattern is repeating itself, with Milorad Dodik often making a move that ultimately puts the state in an absurd position.

Because, let's imagine a situation where Tanja Fajon or Nataša Pirc Musar, despite the "sanctions" from Banja Luka, decide to visit some part of Republika Srpska; the state will be obliged to provide them with protection, protocol, and treatment befitting their positions. Therefore, Dodik's move is legally void from the start, but politically effective; it has once again imposed the agenda and created a situation where BiH institutions must explain what is already a constitutional fact.

We have had such examples before. German Minister Anna Lührmann had to leave Banja Luka accompanied by entity police, and that was before her planned meeting with members of the Party of Democratic Progress. Dodik, namely, called the RS police to "escort" the minister.

Although the Directorate for Coordination of Police Bodies of BiH provided her with protection, Lührmann herself decided to leave the country. So, it happened again that Dodik, with one move, put the state on the defensive, while international partners leave BiH with a clear feeling that the entity is taking over the role of the state here.

This is not new. Let's recall how it all began, back when BiH officials, in the face of obvious threats of destabilization, instead of a clear and decisive reaction, said they "would not send armed men against armed men."

It was precisely then that the moment was missed to show that the state has strength and does not allow the legal order to be questioned by one person's improvisations. Every delay and calculation has only strengthened Dodik's narrative and given him space to test the boundaries again.

That is why today, when an entity imposes sanctions on the head of Slovenian diplomacy and the president of an EU member state, we return to the same conclusion: Dodik is, unfortunately, always one step ahead of the state. Not because he is stronger, nor because he has the right, but because institutions continue to react instead of acting. And whenever there is a delayed reaction, Dodik is already preparing his next move.