Milorad Dodik - a trader with a verdict in his pocket: Is his silence on the British actually his most expensive trade?

Written by: Rasim Belko

Milorad Dodik has been convicted. Period. The only pure and unquestionable fact in the last few days. Everything else – comments, expectations, reactions, statements, interpretations – are just additional layers of fog from which the truth can barely be discerned. And the truth, no matter how satisfying for someone's emotions, can be poison for the state if not understood in time.

That is the problem with this society – whenever a verdict falls where few believed it would, Sarajevo quickly moves from emotion to self-deception. First, enthusiasm, then sentimental narration about justice, and finally – complete forgetfulness that in this region, legal truths were often the product of political agreements, not moral turning points. That is the case now as well.

Sarajevo is not rejoicing, at least not officially. No fireworks, no mass dancing, no banners saying "justice has arrived." But beneath the surface, in cafes, on social networks, in political backrooms and among "analysts" who greet every verdict as their own doctorate, a crazy euphoria vibrates. Self-satisfaction that he has "finally fallen." And that is precisely where the blindness begins.

Because only someone who has never seriously read the political history of the region can think that Milorad Dodik – a political bumblebee who has survived for twenty years solely on the idea of separatism, provoking crises and defying everyone in turn – will now, behold, accept the verdict and leave the political scene empty-handed. Not even the judge who signed the verdict thinks that. Such a thing can only be imagined by political laymen, propaganda parrots, and voluntary hostages of their own naivety.

The verdict is there, yes. But what preceded it and what will follow is even more important. Because Dodik, whatever he is, is not stupid. Nor powerless. He agreed to be prosecuted, brought or transported to the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and then convicted – and all that without too much resistance. Not because he decided to repent, but because he had previously agreed on what he would get in return. That was a trade, not a catharsis.

We have been seeing signs of this for months, but Sarajevo does not want to see them. Instead, it deludes itself that it is about "weakness," "political end," "international determination." And the real question, which no one here asks because everyone is busy celebrating, is: What did Dodik get in return?

Is it something personal – security for himself and his family? Or something institutional – concessions for the Republika Srpska? Perhaps something even bigger – concrete steps towards redefining internal relations in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

If his press conference on Friday is carefully analyzed, it is clearly visible where the verdict ceases to be judicial and becomes a political tool. There, Dodik announced the cessation of cooperation with the EU, attacked European embassies, announced the end of European integration, letters to Washington and Moscow. But he did not, not by chance, mention the British. The same ones he has been accusing for years of "special operations," of "destroying the RS," of everything that comes to his mind. And here are a few examples to refresh our memory:

· 2022: He calls British troops "spies" and "illegal colonialists."

· 2023: He claims the sanctions are part of a British plan to destroy Serbian identity.

· 2024: He openly states that the British Embassy in Sarajevo is a "logistics center for destabilization."

And now – nothing. Silence. Not a single word. Not a single gesture. Isn't that suspicious? When Dodik does not mention his favorite demon, it is clear that an agreement lies behind it. Someone made a deal. Someone put something on the table. And someone turned a blind eye.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Drina River, Aleksandar Vučić screams, threatens, announces "serious responses," using his well-known operatic techniques to obscure the stage. His hysteria is not a reflex of weakness, but an old trick: raise dust while the transition is underway. And Sarajevo, unfortunately, falls for the trick again.

And the real consequences are yet to come. And not as explicit threats, but through processes that are easily packaged in the language of "dialogue," "reform," "European standards." Perhaps we will soon witness an invisible numbing of constitutional institutions from within. Perhaps state property will become a "resource for compromise," not the legal foundation of the state. Perhaps parallel structures, until now illegal, will get a new name – "functional solutions." Perhaps the international community will introduce a quiet withdrawal under the guise of "local ownership of reforms."

And Sarajevo? Sarajevo will continue to celebrate the verdict – not realizing that right before its eyes, the very tools that made that verdict possible are disappearing.

That is why Sarajevo must stop behaving like a psycho-patient from whom unfiltered emotions and impulsive reactions gush and fire them off on X and other available networks. Stop drooling over the crumbs thrown to you from the international table at which you are not able to sit. Start thinking politically. Start doubting. Start calculating.

Because Milorad Dodik has been convicted – but that does not mean he is defeated. And when a trader with a verdict in his pocket leaves the courtroom, the question is not how much he lost, but what all he took with him.