Kos on Dodik, but not on HDZ: Is Brussels pushing BiH towards the Cyprus scenario?

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

The visit of European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos to Sarajevo brought a series of expected messages about the importance of Bosnia and Herzegovina's European path. Even the birds on the branch know that BiH's path to the European Union is something without dilemmas, or is there?

The necessity of respecting the BiH Constitutional Court, the Central Election Commission, and the continuation of reforms was emphasized, while the political establishment of Republika Srpska and Milorad Dodik was again identified as the main disruptive factor. However, such an approach raises the question of why Brussels persistently bypasses the other side of the same destructive political triangle, HDZ BiH?

Namely, HDZ not only continuously blocks reform processes but is also Dodik's key support in state institutions.

Chairwoman Borjana Krišto, through machinations, prevents the appointment of the BiH Minister of Security, hiding behind the 'lack of political agreements'. She, as she herself stated, adheres to the signed coalition agreement, according to which that position belongs to SNSD. In practice, however, HDZ does everything to ensure that all SNSD cadres remain in their positions. The Trojka (SDP, NS, and NiP) still believes in compromise and lacks the strength to decisively present their demands to HDZ BiH. This is understandably done mostly because of the Government of the Federation.

European Commissioner Kos rightly warns about secessionist moves from Banja Luka, but at the same time ignores the fact that it is precisely HDZ, through its control of mechanisms in the Federation of BiH and at the state level, that enables SNSD to survive and its cadres to remain unreplaced. Such selective criticism gives the impression that Brussels consciously or unconsciously accepts the policy of Zagreb, which, through HDZ, has a decisive influence on BiH's European path.

Ignoring the destructive actions of HDZ is dangerous for at least two reasons. First, because it sends a message that European institutions are prepared to tolerate blockades coming from the Federation as long as criticism is directed towards Banja Luka.

Second, because such an approach creates a real fear of the so-called "Cypriotization" of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a scenario in which Republika Srpska, isolated due to its secessionist policy, would remain outside the European path, while the Federation, under the domination of HDZ and with the open support of Zagreb, would continue to move towards the EU.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of BiH, Elmedin Konaković, has previously 'warned' of such a possibility, and Marta Kos's statements deepen this fear.

Quite the opposite, the selective identification of problems without confronting the role of HDZ and its alliance with Dodik further intensifies the suspicion that the EU might apply the Cyprus model, integrating one part of the country while leaving the other in a vacuum of political isolation.

If Brussels wants a truly European Bosnia and Herzegovina, then it must stop closing its eyes to the destructive actions of all actors, not just Milorad Dodik and SNSD.

Otherwise, BiH's European perspective will not only be slowed down but also deeply fragmented, which will mean another round of waiting for the citizens and another historical failure.