By Armin Sijamić
The Republican Convention in Milwaukee has elected Donald Trump as its presidential candidate for the November elections, and a little earlier, the former president decided that his running mate in this race would be Senator J.D. Vance. This reflects important trends in American politics and is proof of Trump's cooperation with those he has declared his and the people's enemies for years.
Before becoming a presidential candidate, Donald Trump was part of the American business elite and someone who, through showbiz, reached almost every American. Then, a billionaire, close to politicians, including Democrats, decided to enter politics.
At the very beginning of the race for the Republican nomination, few gave him a chance. However, Trump quickly turned into a machine that was difficult to stop, a person who shook up the sleepy Republicans and prevented Hillary Clinton from succeeding Barack Obama in the White House.
It was clear then that Trump had the support of a segment of the business and political elite who disagreed with the political narrative of a segment of the Democrats, which he still describes today as the "extreme left." There is no left in economics, because what the majority of Democrats advocate for is, according to Bernie Sanders, the biggest leftist among them, not even a milder version of European social democrats from a few decades ago, but rather the representation of other values that are contrary to what right-wingers call "family values."
A Book Before Politics
Prone to a turbulent life, which he showed to the public, Trump did not fit the profile of a typical Republican. This cost him resistance, and a group called "Republicans Against Trump" emerged. This group also supported Nikki Haley in her attempt to remove him from the race this year.
History repeats itself. This time too, Trump will receive the support of Republicans, parts of the media, the business and political elite, and in return, he will surround himself with people who, as some say, 'know how the system works.' Four years ago, it was Mike Pence, Rex Tillerson, Mike Pompeo... This time, J.D. Vance will play such a role, while Vivek Ramaswamy, a man who often has different views from the rest of the Republicans, is preparing for his Senate seat if Trump and Vance are elected.
Vance's selection is not accidental. Trump's team believes that for an election victory, they need support in the "Rust Belt," i.e., in the states that were the backbone of the American economy and which, due to the relocation of companies, especially to China, experienced economic and social collapse.
A society that is falling apart and in which the worker and his family have no chance is the theme of the book Vance wrote in 2016, thus becoming known outside his home state of Ohio. The memoir Hillbilly Elegy describes his upbringing in Middletown, with his grandmother, grandfather, and stepfather, because his father left him and his mother was an alcoholic. The memoir was later adapted into a successful film.
A difficult childhood led him to change his name. He was born in 1984 as James Donald Bowman. He changed the name Donald, after his biological father, to David. Thus, the nickname J.D. was coined, and he changed his surname Bowman to Hamel, which was his stepfather's surname. His mother later divorced his stepfather, so after finishing college, he took the surname Vance – the surname of his maternal grandparents. Thus, the current name James David Vance, or J.D. Vance for short, was created.
Vance graduated from Yale, where he studied law, after graduating from Ohio State University where he studied political science and philosophy, and became a businessman in California. The book made him a well-known commentator, and he particularly addressed the relationship between the white working class and Trump. Then and later, he spoke fiercely about him. "I think these elections are really having a negative effect, especially on the white working class," he said in 2016. "What it does is give people an excuse to point fingers at someone else, point fingers at Mexican immigrants, or Chinese trade or Democratic elites or whatever else."
Seven years ago, Vance returned to Ohio. He and his wife Usha Chilukuri Vance, whom he met at Yale, have three children – Ewan, Vivek, and Mirabel. Usha is the child of Indian immigrants, and her childhood and background are completely different from Vance's.
Vance as Trump's and Republican Choice
As a successful businessman, Trump knows how to overlook certain things. Vance's life, from poverty to success, could be appealing to voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, who could decide the election winner. Current President Joseph Biden played on his working-class background and understanding of the problems of working families in those states.
Trump believes that Vance's experience as a Marine, who served six months in Iraq in 2005, could open doors to war veterans. Vance would thus try to take on the role that another war veteran and politician, John McCain, held for decades.
"I'm a 'never Trump' type. I never liked him," "God, what an idiot," "is he the American Hitler?" are just some of the things Vance said about Trump. But in 2018, he changed his views, and Trump is now someone who understands white workers. The following year, he became a Catholic. When he entered politics in 2021, the pieces fell into place. His candidacy for senator was supported by Trump, and he changed his stance on banning abortion nationwide after the fifteenth week of pregnancy to the right of states to decide on it, which is also Trump's stance, and that "reasonable exceptions" should be considered, after criticism from abortion rights advocates, especially in cases of rape or danger to the mother's life.
His candidacy for senator coincided with Russia's aggression against Ukraine. He claimed that the US should not send money and weapons to Kyiv, but that there are more pressing matters to invest in. Thus, he reconciled Trump's desires and the hopes of poor voters.
National Interests and Trump
Although US Vice Presidents have a small role in foreign policy, Vance's views are important because his candidacy has a different background, despite Biden calling him a "Trump clone."
Republicans are divided on the issue of Ukraine. Traditional Republicans see Russia as a threat from the Cold War. However, funding Kyiv is an issue that divides them into those who would help as Biden and the Democrats are doing, those who would share the burden with Europe, and those who would cut off funding. Vance moved from cutting off funding to the group that would share the burden with Europe, which Trump also demands.
"What I would like to do, and what I think is fundamentally achievable here with American leadership, but you don't know until you have the conversation, is to freeze the territorial lines somewhere near where they are now. That's the first thing. Second, you guarantee both Kyiv's independence and its neutrality. That's the fundamental thing the Russians have been asking for from the beginning. I think a lot of what the Russians have asked for is unfair, but neutrality is clearly something they see as existential. And third, there will have to be some American security assistance in the long term. I think those three things are achievable," Vance said.
As a senator, Vance blocked aid to Ukraine, calling for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. But if former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to be believed, Trump will not abandon Kyiv. He met with Trump at the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee and said they "talked about Ukraine and I have no doubt that he will be strong and decisive in supporting that country and defending democracy."
However, Trump's team does not want to give money as Biden did. "Donald Trump has promised to go into talks with Russia and the Ukrainians to resolve this issue quickly so that America can focus on the real problem, which is China," Vance said. In February, at the Munich Security Conference, he said that European countries must bear a greater burden so that Washington can focus on China, a stance that has bipartisan consensus.
Some have said that Trump's return to the White House could be terrible for Kyiv, but what should China expect, which the former president and Vance see as the biggest threat. "It is the biggest threat to our country, and we are completely distracted from it," Vance said. Focusing on China is the "real issue," he added. In March, he sponsored a bill that would cut off the Chinese government from the US capital market if it did not follow international trade law. House Speaker Mike Johnson, also a Republican, has identified China as the biggest foreign threat to the US.
Vance called China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 a "disaster," while Trump threatens 60 percent tariffs on almost all Chinese goods, continuing the trade war he initiated in his first term and which Biden has continued. Vance also blames China for the fentanyl crisis, an opioid made from chemicals produced in China and which enters the US via Mexico. He believes Trump will solve this problem.
Trump will therefore help Taiwan. At the convention in Milwaukee, Senator Marco Rubio, close to Trump and a possible candidate for an important position in his administration, said that Taiwan faces an "existential threat" and must invest more in defense. He added that he expects Trump to continue to support Taiwan, as he did in his first term.
Just as he has a firm stance towards China, he also has one towards Israel, but with different connotations. Vance unequivocally supports Israel. He has also introduced legislation that prevents federal funding for colleges where students protested against the war in the Gaza Strip, as well as for colleges that employ illegal immigrants.
"Culturally, morally, politically, it is a true ally in the sense that we not only share some interests, but we actually share values," Vance says about Israel. He criticized Biden for not supplying Israel with weapons and accused Hamas of being responsible for all civilian casualties. "You have to, first and foremost, allow Israel to actually finish the job." Vance says the goal is for "Israel and the Sunnis to control this region," and that he is against war with Iran. He praised the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and added: "If you're going to hit the Iranians, hit them hard!"
National Interests and Trump
Polls suggest that Trump and Vance are heading for victory, but it is too early to say. However, some trends favor them.
Trump's acceptability in many circles in the United States in recent weeks suggests that he is still part of the elite, if he was ever outside of it, and that now, behind him and Vance, stands what he has called the "deep state" for years. Thus, roles could change in the remainder of the campaign, while Democrats appeal to blacks, Latinos, minorities, the poor, the young...
If Trump wins, he will have his own moves and bring about some changes, but he will also pursue policies conceived by others, despite occasional outbursts that he still makes, just as Vance does when he said that the United Kingdom is "not doing so well" due to migration and that the Labour party has made it the "first truly Islamic country" with a nuclear bomb.
Official London has already moved past this statement, as it will have as much impact as Vance's statement at the Milwaukee convention: "We are done, ladies and gentlemen, serving Wall Street. We are going to serve the working man." And this in the week when numerous wealthy individuals supported Trump.
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