Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2023 - Testing Apartheid and the Serb-Croat Condominium Model!

For Patria, Jahja Muhasilović analyzes

There is no doubt that the past year, along with 2022, has been the most politically difficult for Bosnia and Herzegovina since the end of the war. It will be remembered as the year in which the apartheid imposition tailored a year earlier was tested. The first year of condominium existence. Besides that, most of what was painstakingly built over the last three decades was annulled in record time. Let's recall some events from the past year.

Controversial Amendments to the Election Law

By introducing amendments to the Election Law, High Representative Christian Schmidt demonstrated the fact that the International Community's stance is that it is necessary to politically 'cripple' Bosniaks, given their increasingly evident demographic dominance over the other two peoples. After Schmidt's amendments, Bosniaks, who make up over half of the total population, were reduced to a statistical error and disenfranchised overnight.

This spurred a disappointingly small number of citizens and political parties to gather in front of the OHR, demanding the abolition of the imposed apartheid measures. That day, in front of the OHR, it became evident that part of the political elite had no intention of opposing the imposed measures, but rather of waiting for a signal from the International Community to take the positions they had longed for. Therefore, they would later be rewarded with power through the coalition known as the Trojka.

After the coalition gathered around SDA and DF won the previous general elections against the International Community's favorites, a real nightmare ensued. Given that the engineering of neighboring countries and their proxies (SNSD and HDZ), with the support of the International Community, did not yield the desired results, the High Representative decided to suspend the Constitution for 24 hours, which is a precedent for a modern European country like BiH, and to install the Trojka in power. That day, concerned citizens gathered in front of the FBiH Parliament to express their dissatisfaction, however, their voice, as well as the voice of the Vice President of FBiH Refik Lendo (SDA), without whom it was unconstitutional to form a government, was completely ignored. In this anti-democratic manner, 2022 ended and the new "imposed 2023" began.

After the aforementioned events, it was crystal clear that 2023 would be a difficult year for BiH and for Bosniaks. A series of harmful political maneuvers began very early, which would further disenfranchise the largest people in BiH. The Council of Ministers at the state level was formed in such a way that, due to the Trojka's subservience, Bosniaks were left with crumbs and margins of power. After subversively destroying the Movement for the Homeland in RS, which was intended to return pro-Bosnian politics to the political scene in that entity, Vojin Mijatović, who is 100 percent Serb and 101 percent from Serbia, gifted SNSD the fourth delegate in the Serb club of the House of Peoples of the state parliament, thereby giving Dodik's party the levers of blocking and blackmail at the state level. After that, the Trojka, although subservient to SNSD and HDZ themselves, 'negotiated' a series of unfavorable ministries.

Bosniak quotas were filled by individuals who proudly distance themselves from their Bosniak roots, such as Edin Forto, the Minister of Communications and Transport. Elmedin Konaković, a physical education teacher without adequate diplomatic experience, was appointed head of diplomacy. His incompetence might not have been so problematic if the only prerequisite for this position had not been the fact that the aforementioned minister was described in Zagreb circles as a "good boy," which he consistently confirmed with his "diplomatic" avoidance of mentioning the crimes of HVO during the aggression and a series of unfavorable moves for BiH.

Imposition of Federal Government

The way the government was formed at the federal level was extremely scandalous and detrimental to the interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially to Bosniaks. The International Community and the Trojka handed over unprecedented power to Čović's HDZ. When the federal government was formed by Schmidt's suspension of the Constitution, it was solely to satisfy the demands of Čović and Zagreb. The appointment of Marin Vukoja, a close member of HDZ, to the Constitutional Court came on the agenda. The problem arose when the Trojka and HDZ decided that Vukoja would be the sole candidate for that position. The Constitution prevented the Trojka and HDZ from carrying out their arbitrary decision, as the vote had to go through the parliamentary appointment commission, which refused to accept Vukoja as the sole candidate, thereby stopping the attempted constitutional-legal coup by HDZ and the subservient Trojka. Attempts to push Vukoja into the Constitutional Court are still ongoing, and there are no indications that Čović will give up his maximalist demands. The situation is further complicated by the justified fear that, at the invitation of individuals from the Trojka, Schmidt will continue his colonialist behavior with new impositions.

BiH's EU and NATO Path in 2023

In vain hoping that the Russian army's invasion of Ukraine would initiate BiH's progress on its Euro-Atlantic path, another disappointment followed. BiH was "rewarded" with candidate status in such a way that war-torn, territorially incomplete, and economically far more backward European 'great powers' like Ukraine and Moldova bypassed it, and Georgia, which has two satellite pro-Russian quasi-states within its borders and is geographically located on the Asian continent, almost did the same. In the spring of next year, BiH will be informed whether it will get the green light to start negotiations, which the Trojka will try to turn into a diplomatic spectacle.

As for BiH's NATO path, things are even worse. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg indicated during his visit to the region this year that BiH should not dream of NATO and that its full membership in the Alliance is not currently on the agenda. All of this happened in a year when Russia stabilized on the Ukrainian front and threatens to return to the Balkans, but this time much more angrily. The situation becomes more serious when one considers the fact that maximum efforts were made in the previous year to further strengthen pro-Russian actors like Dodik and to hand over BiH's security to them. The Russians will be welcomed with open arms in their new onslaught by the 'Serbian world' strengthened by American hands.

The Fight for the Civic Principle Continued

The past year was also strongly influenced by the appeal of Slaven Kovačević to the European Court of Human Rights, where it was emphasized that the state structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina goes against the civic principle. Mr. Kovačević complained to the ECtHR that the way the House of Peoples of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Presidency of BiH are organized is contrary to the principles of a civic state and that ethnic affiliation guarantees power and position. According to the ECtHR's decision, this violates the European Convention on Human Rights, Article 1 of Protocol No. 12 (general prohibition of discrimination). Another significance of the judgment lies in the fact that it confirmed previous judgments (Sejdić-Finci, Zornić, Pilav, Pudarić) that were made against BiH and its violation of the civic principle, and it went a step further by sublimating and confirming the "ethno-cratic" organization of the state, which violates the fundamental rights of its citizens. This judgment automatically became one of the prerequisites for BiH's full membership in the EU. Perhaps there will be no diplomatic spectacle after all. After the initial euphoria, the entire case was pushed into the background by skillful media and political manipulation. In this case, we once again saw all the duplicity of the OHR, which continues to make maximum efforts to undermine and prevent the implementation of the judgment.

Negative Trends Dominated

The year we are leaving behind was definitely one of the most dynamic in the modern history of BiH. Most of the dynamics that will determine the future of our country are currently very unfavorable. Whether it concerns the aforementioned political processes or others, the situation is alarming. In 2023, BiH continued its demographic cataclysm. Emigration and declining birth rates remain among the worst in the world and threaten to ultimately endanger the mere biological survival of BiH's inhabitants. What is noticeable is that the labor force, which is chronically lacking in our country, is being replaced by foreign labor, so the private sector increasingly imports labor from third countries. At least we are following European trends in that regard.

Due to the 'visionary' approach of the Trojka, we now have a situation where HDZ is blocking all important communication and transport projects, thereby consciously isolating Cantons with a Bosniak majority. Things are not rosy in the energy sector either. The past year was marked by significant turmoil regarding the energy sector. In the midst of the global energy crisis, we witnessed the Trojka intending to hand over BiH's energy security to Milorad Dodik, and they intend to do the same for Dragan Čović by handing him control over the potential Southern Interconnection, bypassing the state gas import company.

Security Uncertain

As for the security sector, it seems quite insecure. Great-Serbian nationalists like Nenad Nešić are currently in charge. Serbian separatism was rewarded this year with Dodik's fascist parade, no less, in the capital city. The city that the same policy held under a bloody siege for almost 500 days. He closed the entity border with the tacit permission of EUFOR, thus proving that state security structures and international peacekeeping troops will silently observe any potential secession.

OSA, as well as most strategic institutions, are deeply infiltrated by SNSD and HDZ cadres, which provokes serious concern for the safety of our citizens. As for the Armed Forces, the situation is not much better. The new Minister of the Armed Forces, Zukan Helez, tried to convince the public about the procurement of helicopters, however, little has been done in that regard.

Judicial Prosecutions

The judicial system was once again in the spotlight with a series of scandalous events. After the imposition of power, as could be expected, a political reckoning with the previous government began. An entire array of opposition politicians and former state officials were arrested. What could not escape attention was that many of these processes had a political connotation. Among the last to be brought in, thus rounding off this judicial year, were the President of the BiH Court, Ranko Debevec, and the perpetually arrested former head of the State Intelligence Agency, Osman Mehmedagić-Osmica. The processes we witnessed in the previous year have objectively lowered us on the scale of justice and judicial efficiency. Especially after information surfaced that individuals from the Prosecutor's Office were themselves deeply involved in organized crime.

Media Spins to Create Narratives

All of this might not have passed the public's eyes so smoothly if the media darkness and disinformation of our public had not deepened further in 2023. Although international rating lists, despite being known to be politicized themselves, sometimes position BiH relatively high compared to the region, the fact is that the media narrative is predominantly dictated by Western embassies. In the past year, many media outlets continued to serve politics, regional actors, ideology, spin, and the conscious confusion of the public. Nothing new.

The year twenty twenty-three, or anno domini the first in the newly formed S-H condominium, perhaps heralds an even more anxious next year. BiH, which paid for its independence and dignity with the blood of one hundred thousand people, has been thrown into the jaws of those who did not achieve their goals through armed means. None of this would have been possible without those 'among us' for whom this honorable defense creates "vicarious embarrassment." Those who do not identify with the successes of the ARBiH. For whom it is just one of many "nationalist armies" responsible for the "civil war," ignoring the fact that it is precisely to that Army they owe the freedom to grab official positions without fear. Ah, yes, the legal prosecution of those same generals to whom we owe our freedom continued this year. It will likely continue next year as well. That is what the anti-Bosniak canon of the new S-H condominium dictates. May the second year of the S-H calendar be a happy one for us.