Sarajevo elites cannot stop Dodik as long as they care for the budgets more than for the state

Ernad Metaj

SNSD President Milorad Dodik continues activities leading to destruction of BiH. Dodik is active on the ground, constantly present in the media and implements his agenda step by step. The Prosecutor's Office of BiH can stop him, but that possibility is only theoretical, at least for now. The US and the EU can do that, the question is how and when. Dark clouds hover over BiH, and the domestic political forces loyal to the idea of ​​a sovereign and united BiH do not seem to have a clue how to break them nor the power to do so.

The SDP's gathering of political partners over the idea of ​​not negotiating changes to the BiH Election Law and constitutional reforms while there is a threat of BiH's disintegration, seemed encouraging. The problem is in that, it does not represent the end of the fight against secessionism. Such convention should be the starting point for the elaboration of further activities that would neutralize the policy of Milorad Dodik, but also that of Dragan Čović, who survives exclusively on the SNSD concessions.

The battle for BiH cannot be won by patriotic statements on social networks, which the politics has recently been reduced to… the politics that should be strong enough to confront Dodik's secessionism. At the same time, Dodik’s seriousness and strength are (un)reasonably underestimated, probably out of belief that he will be frightened by narrative poetry about readiness to defend homeland ‘with a rifle’.

And while we cannot dispute the importance of such readiness, such statements are actually what Dodik wants and welcomes. His survival solely depends on further radicalization of relations in BiH. However, we should not ignore the fact that social and political chaos suits most of those who cling on the budget, especially the structures in power.

On the other hand, the battles for budgets seem more important to the opposition than the fight for the state. Therefore, there is a real danger that the election campaign in the FBiH will be disastrous for the survival of the state. For Dodik, the story of the RS independence and the destruction of state institutions is also his pre-election campaign story. Its equal opponent cannot be only in the battle for supremacy in Sarajevo and in federal institutions. Nor can the cure for the vanity of party leaders due to personal animosities, who opt for negative labeling of each other over a meaningful and decisive joint response to secessionist politics. SDP Vice President Denis Bećirović warned about that in his New Year's greeting card.

- At the beginning of 2022, I urge the presidents of political parties not to negotiate important state issues without the current chairman of the BiH Presidency Željko Komšić, the man who won the greatest trust of our citizens in the last general elections. In these difficult moments, our country needs unwavering fighters and not ‘political invertebrates’. Together we must be extremely careful, well organized, well trained and active as never before. We should not be surprised by any scenario in 2022, because even 1% of political extremists deployed in important positions can lead 99% of the population into a collective disaster, among other things, said Bećirović.

The battle for BiH is not to be won in Sarajevo. The desire of Bosniaks alone is not enough to preserve BiH, so it is unreasonable to expect that SDP Vice President Vojin Mijatović can fight the battle in Banja Luka. In order not to be misunderstood, we mean exclusively the attempt to increase the number of Serb votes in favor of BiH.

Sarajevo politics has to a large extent given up on the RS. The SDP's objection to the Government of Fadil Novalić that by planning the budget it betrayed returnees again, but also deceived the leader of the SDA Bakir Izetbegović, which partly also affects the Movement for the Homeland – confirms that this is true. This movement is the only serious force that can be a response to the madness of the RS authorities. The movement reminds us that 25 years have been lost in the struggle for the state through the misuse of funds that were supposed to ensure a sustainable return.

The movement is also a reminder to civic parties that they have been building a false image of multiethnicity for 25 years, reducing their own survival to picking the crumbs left behind by the SDA. One should be brave and honest and admit that multiethnicity cannot be reduced to a balanced leading party structure that has not been able to spread the idea throughout BiH. In this way, the story of civil BiH was allowed to be abused as a wish of Bosniaks for a unitary state in which, as the majority, they would impose their will on other nations, with the help of ‘eligible’ Serbs and Croats.

Without the support of the international community, the battle to save BiH could be reduced to armed incidents, and perhaps a new conflict. That is why it is of great importance to intensify foreign policy activities in order to first preserve the interests of the friends of BiH, but also to convince those who have doubts about the fate and future of this area. At the moment, it seems that the pre-election battles in the FBiH have taken away the momentum for regular contacts with European and American officials, on whose will the fate of BiH may depend. Financial support for lobbying, but also for the political struggle in the RS, is no less important than the struggle for young mothers in Sarajevo, and now for the rest of the FBiH. Without RS, it will be a futile policy of the blind to understand how they will end up in the ghetto, or they don't care because they are counting on their share of the budget there as well.