If HDZ gains the Serb opposition in addition to SNSD, it will be the most dangerous scenario for BiH

(Patria) - A meeting of the Trojka (SDP, NiP, NS), HDZ BiH, and the opposition from RS (SDS, PDP, and the List for Justice and Order) is scheduled for tomorrow in Sarajevo. The signing of a coalition agreement has also been announced.

This would remove Milorad Dodik's secessionist SNSD, who went to Russia after a short stay in Israel, from state-level government after a long time.

But is such a scenario realistic at all, how much is the leader of HDZ BiH, Dragan Čović, interested in power without SNSD, will he use the new coalition to get the long-awaited Election Law...

These are some of the questions answered by Professor at the International University of Sarajevo (IUS) Dr. Jahja Muhasilović.

Muhasilović says that HDZ BiH is trying to navigate the current situation, primarily because Dodik's unconstitutional and anti-Dayton moves have put them in a difficult position.

- Dodik is their main partner with whom they have had close cooperation that has functioned almost flawlessly for the past 20 years. Now, this alliance is in question due to the uncertainty Dodik is facing, as it is still unknown whether he will be arrested, whether he will flee the country...

This is a considerable unknown for HDZ BiH at the moment, and solely because of this situation, not because something has significantly disrupted their alliance, they must consider an alternative. And that alternative, should Dodik fall and SNSD weaken, HDZ sees in the opposition from RS - Muhasilović told the Patria News Agency (NAP).

However, he emphasizes that it is not in HDZ BiH's interest for SNSD to fall, and that Čović's party will probably do nothing to bring them down.

- SNSD is an ideal ally for HDZ, as the strongest Serb party, and that is the Serb-Croatian alliance against Bosnia and Herzegovina. That is why HDZ will not openly go against Milorad Dodik, but due to the uncertainty of the situation, they are forced to seek an alternative.

On the other hand, HDZ BiH hopes to strengthen itself with the Serb opposition in this crisis, so it should not be surprising if HDZ emerges from this crisis with both the Trojka, SNSD, and the Serb opposition on its side.

Because, HDZ BiH is currently the strongest political party in BiH, which was of course enabled by High Representative Christian Schmidt and the subservient Trojka - they have put them in a position to literally decide who will be in power with them.

HDZ BiH is indispensable in terms of removing or keeping SNSD in power. They are looking for space in this crisis as well, they are not giving up on their policy of changing the Election Law in a way that suits them.

If they include the Serb opposition in their bloc, which is definitely the axis, it will make it easier for HDZ BiH to push through the Election Law, i.e., to transform the BiH Presidency in a way that exclusively suits them - points out Muhasilović.

However, he warns that this crisis could result in HDZ BiH becoming the number one party in BiH and having both SNSD and the Serb opposition on its side - which would be the most dangerous scenario for our country.

- The Serb opposition, namely those small parties from the RS entity, have not been in power for a long time due to SNSD's dominance, but their views on BiH and its progress are more or less identical to SNSD's views.

There are even some parties there that are worse than SNSD. But all in all, when it comes to the approach towards BiH, there is no significant difference between the Serb opposition and SNSD - says Muhasilović.

If the Serb opposition enters power, for which, as he says, there currently seem to be slim chances, it will in a way become a hostage of HDZ BiH, because its entry into power depends exclusively on HDZ BiH.

- The Serb opposition will be the Serb version of the Trojka we have, and they will exclusively have to listen to HDZ BiH - emphasizes Muhasilović.

Finally, he states that to remove SNSD from power, majorities need to align through the clubs of the House of Peoples, so it is not an easy undertaking, as it currently seems.

- As I said, HDZ BiH will not move to overthrow Milorad Dodik, because it is primarily not in the interest of that party. There are many obstacles preventing them from doing so easily - concluded Muhasilović in an interview with NAP.

D.K.