SOA analyzes countries in the region: Croats in BiH have not yet achieved their demands, Serbia is implementing the concept of the 'Serbian world'

(Patria) - There is currently no serious direct threat to national security or the constitutional order in Croatia, but the deteriorating security of the European continent in recent years can also have an impact on the country's national security. This is the conclusion of the public report for 2024, published on Sunday by the Croatian Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA).

The most significant security risks for Croatia, according to SOA's analysis, are cyber attacks, individual possible terrorist threats and extremism, illegal border crossings, and the unstable Western Balkan neighborhood.

There are no terrorist organizations operating in Croatia, so the threat of attacks is still assessed as low. However, the report states, the possibility cannot be excluded that (solely) radicalized individuals, inspired by terrorist propaganda, carry out a terrorist attack. Younger individuals with psychological difficulties who accept extreme ideological beliefs and have a propensity for violence are particularly at risk.

The main source of terrorist threat for Europe is Islamic extremism, especially lone attackers inspired by jihadist propaganda, among whom there is an increasing number of young and minor perpetrators and immigrants to the EU from African and Asian countries, SOA states.

As stated in the report, there are several dozen followers of Salafism in Croatia who do not advocate violence, "but in the countries of the Western Balkans, there is a smaller number of supporters of jihadist Salafism." It is also stated that in recent years, hundreds of jihadists, former members of ISIL and other terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq, have returned to their home countries in the Western Balkans, and upon their return, they were sentenced to short prison terms and most are already free.

"Individuals with (dual) Croatian citizenship who joined ISIL are still in camps controlled by Syrian Kurds, where family members of ISIL fighters are housed. These are mainly women who were radicalized abroad, from where they went to areas controlled by terrorist organizations in Syria - SOA analyzes.

SOA states that a significant proportion of terrorist attacks (carried out and prevented) in the EU are linked to individuals who have migrated to the EU in recent years.

"ISIL members used the migrant wave to transfer to Europe, presenting themselves as refugees. When it comes to extremists, there are no such pronounced movements in Croatian society. However, there are individuals and small groups who have an extremist worldview or undertake such activities."

On the extreme right scene, SOA further states, the trend of extremism that seeks the abolition of the existing democratic constitutional order is still pronounced. There are intentions and attempts at paramilitary organization, military training, and arms procurement, with the ultimate goal of changing Croatia's constitutional order.

In January 2025, a Croatian citizen was included in the US list of specially designated global terrorists as a member of the international violent far-right online network Terrorgram Collective, which was placed on the list of terrorist groups.

At the same time, the stability of the Western Balkan region is of crucial importance for Croatia. Unresolved political and security disputes still exist, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina, related to the electoral legitimacy of Croats, but also the strengthening of Serbia's influence through the promotion of the "Serbian world" concept.

They also expressed concern about the poor treatment of Croatian citizens in Serbia, who were declared spies during protests against the authorities in that country and were expelled or denied entry at the border.

In Montenegro, SOA points out, there is a rift between the pro-European and pro-Russian options, while radical parties are increasingly shaping the political scene. The political influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church, strongly connected with Russia, has also increased, especially in the processes of connection with Republika Srpska and Serbia.

Global economic movements and trends, SOA states, strongly affect Croatia's economic security.

Crucial are transport and energy capacities such as Adriatic ports and the LNG terminal on Krk, which strengthen European energy independence and ensure Croatia's strategic position in the European security architecture.