Written by: Armin Sijamić
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin want a meeting. Diplomats from the two countries are already working to make it happen. And while many in the West wonder what Washington and Trump stand to gain from this meeting, in Russia there is no doubt that an agreement would be a major victory for the Kremlin.
Criticising former President Joseph Biden and his policy towards Ukraine, Trump has stepped into a quagmire. It would have been much easier for Trump to turn his head away from Ukraine and pretend nothing was happening, as he has done with other issues. He promised to end the war in Eastern Europe as soon as he won the election, even before entering the White House.
Such an initial position does not bode well in diplomatic negotiations, as it allows the other side to negotiate from a position of strength. If we add to that the current situation on the front line and the confusion that has reigned in the West for months, things become more complicated for Trump.
Putin's positions
Things are simpler for the Russian side, at least until the moment they present the achieved results to their public. This particularly applies to the calculation of losses, whether demographic, military, economic, diplomatic...
That is why for Putin, any agreement that gives Russia something de facto and de jure and that the West endorses is a victory. His enthusiasm to negotiate with Trump and the broad support in Russia for that move prove this. In Russia, they know that the state does not have unlimited resources and that the war in Ukraine is taking its toll. A war fought for three years using the world's most advanced weapons must leave deep wounds.
The rapprochement between Putin and Trump is happening on the third anniversary of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. War fatigue is present on all sides. If Ukraine is in danger of running out of soldiers, then Russia is in danger of its economy entering a multi-year race with the West, which has been accelerating weapons production for three years. That is why it is important for Putin to exploit Trump's desire to end the war.
In a short span of time, the two presidents spoke about economic cooperation between the two countries, after years of no direct contacts between the White House and the Kremlin.
"I am in serious discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the war, as well as about major economic development transactions that will take place between the United States and Russia. The talks are going very well," Trump wrote on his platform Truth Social.
A day later, on Tuesday, on state television, Putin spoke approvingly of Trump, who in his opinion is acting "in the interests of Ukraine" and "to preserve Ukrainian statehood." Putin then publicly offered Trump to jointly exploit rare minerals in Russia, because the largest country in the world has "an order of magnitude more" of them than Ukraine.
Putin said this just a few hours after Trump's meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, and one of the topics in Washington was also Ukrainian rare minerals that Trump wants for American companies, as compensation for US aid sent to Kyiv.
While Macron was still in the United States, neighbouring Canada imposed new sanctions on Russian authorities, individuals, foundations, and even the head of the ski federation. The Canadian sanctions were a telling message from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the ally in Washington.
After the war: Sanctions and China
Putin's offer to Trump to work together on exploiting Russian minerals and Trump's confirmation that negotiations on economic cooperation between the two countries are ongoing are like a time bomb for the West. Namely, if the United States agrees to such deals, then it would be necessary to start removing the numerous sanctions against Russia, which would lead to divisions in the West. Europeans and Canada are not ready for that at the moment.
Putin is therefore offering rare minerals that American companies are seeking. If Trump accepts, Putin gets peace in Ukraine and Russia, suspension of sanctions, and divisions in the West. Macron was aware of this when he told Trump in Washington not to wage an economic war against Europe, but against China.
Injecting China into this calculation is not accidental. After the end of the war in Eastern Europe, Trump will focus on containing China. But any economic plan by Washington against China is doomed to failure if it is not supported by Europe. That is why it is not surprising that these days, some who support Trump's and Putin's negotiations are considering whether Russia is ready to help him in the clash against China.
But regardless of China, Putin wants the sanctions on Russia to be lifted. In the past three years, he has shown that Moscow cannot be diplomatically isolated in a large part of the world, but he has not achieved what he most wanted – reducing dependence on the US dollar and the economic and financial mechanisms that the West has at its disposal.
Putin is ready to negotiate with Trump as soon as possible. Economic cooperation with Trump could be more important than some small town in eastern Ukraine, because it would lift sanctions and American companies, which supported the current president's rise to power in Washington, would come to Russia and start businesses. If Ukraine agreed to cede its rare minerals to American companies, then the same actors would appear as a factor on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Putin has thus gained the opportunity to capitalise on what his troops have achieved in Ukraine and what his economy has done under a war regime. An agreement with Trump would mean an end to isolation in the West, lifting of sanctions, divisions among US allies, and a devastated Ukraine as a message to Russia's neighbours of what can happen to them if they turn their backs on Moscow. In such circumstances, Washington and Trump would gain much less. Ukraine and Europe would gain even less.
European resistance to Trump, especially from official Paris, London and Berlin, could force Washington to also consider the views of Kyiv and Europe in negotiations with Putin, thereby testing relations with its European allies.
Europeans say that Putin cannot be trusted, because he attacked Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014, and sent troops to Kyiv in 2022. They are not alone in this. Current US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking as a senator on a Spanish-language US channel, said that he "does not believe anything they say from the Kremlin" and that Russia "invaded" Ukraine, which "is defending itself." In talks with the Russians, it will be interesting to follow what Rubio and the US delegation will agree on and whether those not present at the negotiating table will believe it.
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