By Armin Sijamić
The attack on former President Donald Trump, in the town of Butler in the state of Pennsylvania during his campaign rally, has turned the electoral process in another direction, and not just in terms of public favor, but also in terms of the character of this year's race for the White House.
Who is the twenty-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, why did he shoot at Trump, and how did he get the opportunity to do so, will remain questions that the investigation by the competent American authorities will try to answer. But it is not certain whether the public will ever accept that answer. Attempts on the lives of American presidents have caused controversy to this day, meaning there are numerous versions of who was behind such acts, at least according to those who are most persistent in challenging the official narrative.
However, there will be no doubt that the American services failed (by mistake, or as part of a conspiracy), that Trump could have been killed, and that the attacker left other victims who were at the campaign rally. These are facts that will remain associated with the 2024 presidential election.
It also remains a fact that after the attack, the entire campaign gained a different dynamic and that the act itself became part of the political narrative. Trump, whose photograph taken after he was wounded became a symbol for his supporters, was targeted with an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle, which is legally sold in some states and for which he and the Republicans advocated. Democratic supporters did not miss the opportunity to state on social media that this attack could therefore have been avoided.
Campaign Violence
Trump's supporters say that the attack on the former president is a logical consequence of his demonization, after his impeachment as president was attempted, after trials and a media campaign that he is a danger to democracy in the United States, which President Joseph Biden has claimed for five years.
“Today’s event is not just an isolated incident. The central premise of Biden’s campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric directly led to the assassination attempt on President Trump,” Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, and now officially Trump’s candidate for Vice President of the USA, posted on platform X at the time.
Many in the United States, from both parties mentioned and those who belong to neither, have warned for years that the country is sliding into violence. Trump said that there could be unrest if the upcoming elections are stolen, as he claims he was stolen from in the past, and Democrats that the arrival of this Republican in power would lead to civil conflict.
There is no doubt that Trump's and Biden's campaign headquarters and media close to them are behind the escalation of tensions, meaning that these two politicians are most responsible for this situation. After the attack in Butler, they indirectly admitted it, and the American public is left to consider the question that some have been asking for five years – how is it possible that Biden and Trump are the two most popular politicians in the country and whether political competition as such is possible if everything revolves around the personalities of the candidates.
First, Biden said that the attack on Trump “calls on all of us to take a step back” and that “we cannot allow this violence to be normalized. Political rhetoric in this country has become very heated. It’s time to cool down,” adding that “we all have a responsibility to do this.”
A little later, Trump, preparing for the Republican convention in Milwaukee, which will officially nominate him for president, said that “the speech I intended to give on Thursday would have been impressive. It would have been brutal. I think it would have been very bad if, after all this, I started ranting about how everyone is terrible, how corrupt they are. Now I have a unifying speech.”
Trump's Return
The attack on Trump has also changed the attitude of some media towards him, as before that, most of them described him as a threat, a deviation in the country's political system, and a man who is a convicted criminal (which he officially is) and who is on the verge of prison for numerous other offenses, and as a man who will change American society and politics beyond recognition.
But even before the attack, things began to change in his favor, immediately after the presidential debate where he performed as poorly as Biden. Biden wouldn't have needed the debate, especially since Trump was portrayed in the media as a criminal, but he participated due to a drop in popularity and criticism over the arrival of millions of illegal migrants into the country and his policies towards Israel and Gaza.
After the debate, some Democrats, some of whom are personally close to him, said that Biden is not mentally or physically ready to be president and that he needs a replacement. Biden tried to improve his image with a press conference and an interview, but the effect was not as expected.
After that, Trump won an important victory in a court case in the state of Florida, as the court dismissed the case of illegal possession of important state documents at his private residence, which means the case will continue in higher courts, but the epilogue is likely not before the November elections.
Then, American media claimed that billionaire Elon Musk promised Trump support, which he publicly confirmed after the attack, as did billionaire Bill Ackman. Others also gave their support, especially on social media, who saw Trump as a victim that the unjust system wants to eliminate.
In a campaign where anything is possible
Trump will use the fact that after years of being portrayed as a predator, he is now portrayed as a victim. But it is too early to say that this will be enough for him to win, as there are still four months of campaigning left and a good portion of voters who do not want him and those who do not give up on Biden, especially women due to the 'Roe v. Wade' case and the Democrats' fight to keep it in effect, ensuring the right to abortion and the right to choose.
In October last year, everyone saw Biden in the White House, as Trump clashed with Republicans and his legal problems piled up. After several weeks of war in the Gaza Strip and a rebellion from parts of the party and supporters in key 'swing states', which vote differently from election to election, the candidates were tied, and then Trump had a slight lead which increased until the debate and then again after the debate and the attack in Butler.
Therefore, it can be assumed that any turn of events is possible in a campaign that will get its most concrete part, the one that talks about the candidates' political programs, from mid-September.
Let's also mention that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still in the race, and yesterday he said he would not leave it, despite a phone call with Trump after his injury and speculation that he would support the Republican and become part of his team in case of victory in the elections, which he published on social media and later apologized to the former president for.
Given that American society is divided and radicalized, as admitted by both Biden and Trump, new attacks on candidates or party rallies should not be ruled out. This could lead to new twists, and even a more radical response from the state to growing unrest.
All in all, the United States is having a hot political summer and the continuation of a campaign in which some people have already lost their lives, in which the reputation of American services, considered the best in the world, has been damaged, in which the mental and physical health of the president of the world's largest power is being questioned, in which the most popular politician is a convict... and which is still ongoing. A scenario that even the greatest enemies of America could not have imagined.
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