Attempt by an isolated originalist to buy the independence of the non-existent state of Rs with a resource currency

Written by: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

On November 1, 2023, colleague Rasim Belko made claims that there is serious information that Milorad Dodik, president of the entity Republika Srpska (Ra), reached an agreement with American representatives regarding the possible mining of lithium in the Majevica area. This claim gained attention because it could be concluded that the exploitation of natural resources could serve as a political tool for the potential secession of Rs from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

And today, this will prove to be a valid assessment. What Dodik lacks for secession is state property, because whose land it is, that is whose country.

Lithium, a key mineral for battery production and modern technology, has become a strategically important resource globally. The alleged lithium reserves in Majevica add an economic dimension to the political problem. Dodik, using the rhetoric of Rs sovereignty, openly offers these resources to major world powers—the USA, Russia, the EU, Serbia, Hungary, and China—estimating their value at 100 billion dollars.

However, according to current laws and international legal frameworks, the natural resources and state property of BiH have been under a disposal ban since 2005. This prevents any entity from independently managing or selling property without agreement at the state level. The fact that both entities have not respected the ban is another topic and falls under the domain of the judiciary, which, unfortunately, has not processed such occurrences.

State property expert Muharem Cero has been warning for years that the key political struggle in BiH is precisely over control of state property. This property includes land, forests, waters, mineral resources, and other assets that were owned by the former SFRY, i.e., the Republic of BiH, and which today are claimed by the entities, primarily Rs.

And so Dodik, who today calls himself an 'originalist' (praising his respect for Dayton), knows that the Dayton Peace Agreement, signed in 1995, never precisely regulated the issue of state property.

Instead, it was left for a subsequent agreement, which has not been reached to this day. The entities, especially Republika Srpska, have for years resisted any legal solution that would result in the centralization of property management in the hands of the state of BiH.

In his addresses, Dodik always uses the term "composite state," implying that BiH is not a unified and sovereign country, but composed of two (allegedly) sovereign entities—the Federation of BiH and Rs. He, very deliberately, claims that both entities brought their sovereignty and territorial integrity into the state, and thus the right to dispose of territorial resources.

Such an interpretation is contrary to the rulings of the Constitutional Court of BiH and the positions of the international community, because Rs is not a state, but an entity within internationally recognized BiH.

Dodik's strategy apparently includes an attempt to use economic attractiveness (resource offers) to ease political tensions and isolation, especially from the USA, which has sanctioned him and several Rs officials. In doing so, he tries to present Republika Srpska as a serious geopolitical actor that has something to offer world powers, without the consent of the state of BiH.

Christian Schmidt, the High Representative, announced back in 2022 that he would "soon" resolve the issue of state property, but no concrete intervention occurred. In the meantime, the institutional blockade has deepened, and the political rhetoric from Rs is becoming increasingly open towards secessionist goals.

This situation reveals the deep connection between political ambitions, economic exploitation, and the legal vacuum that still exists in BiH. And, today's 'offer' by Dodik, if anyone took it seriously, is actually an attempt by an 'originalist' to break the isolation on his path to salvation.

More precisely, today's Dodik presentation is an attempt by an isolated originalist to buy the independence of a non-existent state with a resource currency.