Paramilitary Reality in the RS: Political Vacuum More Dangerous than Dodik's Threats

Written by: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

While Milorad Dodik, President of the entity Republika Srpska, systematically strengthens entity police capacities – through equipping, training special forces, and rhetoric that increasingly openly advocates secession, the pro-Bosnian political structures led by the so-called Troika (SDP, NiP, NS) remain trapped in form without substance.

Despite alarming security and political signals, the response from the state level is almost non-existent. Instead of concrete measures, statements, meetings, diplomatic speeches, and messages to international partners are repeated – without any effect on the ground.

What Dodik is doing is not new, but it is dangerously intensified. The procurement of sophisticated equipment for the MUP RS, training of units with paramilitary elements, and aggressive political rhetoric point to the creation of a loyal security apparatus with a clear goal of preparing for a possible secession of the RS.

At the same time, state institutions are collapsing, and security capacities at the BiH level are systematically neglected. The State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) remains without real power, which was most clearly demonstrated in its inability to execute the orders of the Court of BiH for the arrest of Milorad Dodik, Nenad Stevandić, and Radovan Višković.

The Troika, which represents the pro-Bosnian bloc in government, operates without a political strategy. Their rhetoric in international circles boils down to messages: "We cannot do it alone, but we are trying to alert the world." However, that is not politics – it is passivity with an alibi.

On the domestic front, there is no attempt to articulate resistance to Dodik's policies. There is not even a minimum initiative to gather broader pro-Bosnian forces in parliament. The reason is clear: fear of disrupting the coalition with the HDZ and losing the image of "moderates" before foreign diplomats.

The current situation clearly shows that Bosnia and Herzegovina is not only facing a secessionist project from the RS but also a political vacuum in its own ranks.

That vacuum leaves Milorad Dodik with open space to continue his project without serious obstacles.