Secession is too big a bite for Dodik, the scenario of parallelism - a state within a state is more dangerous

(Patria) - Milorad Dodik has announced various referendums before, and most of them have failed, and secession is too big a bite for him, stated for the News Agency Patria (NAP) Professor of International Relations and Geopolitics at the International University of Sarajevo Jahja Muhasilović.

- I am not afraid of secession here; I am afraid of that parallelism within Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Dodik will create such a situation in Republika Srpska that he will have everything parallel, and state institutions will not be able to extinguish his parallelism.

That is a more dangerous scenario in my opinion, because he cannot go for independence for a number of reasons. First, the global setup does not suit him at all. Second, Serbia is not as strong as it used to be. And when it was strongest, it couldn't do something like that because the great powers quickly recognized the borders of the Badinter Commission, i.e., those republican borders.

It couldn't then, and Republika Srpska cannot go for independence today. Therefore, I consider this scenario more dangerous, where he will not secede, but will *de facto* have everything parallel, and the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be able to do anything to prevent his parallel actions, meaning we will have a state within a state.

That is a scarier and more realistic scenario than independence. Because Dodik often scares the public with a referendum on independence, and then gets something concrete. But independence - that cannot happen without war - adds Muhasilović.

He also commented on the appointment of the new Government of RS, which experts generally consider unconstitutional, given that Sava Minić was proposed as the mandate holder by Dodik, whose mandate as President of RS had already been revoked.

- There are two problematic instances here. First, the BiH Constitution is violated because the Central Election Commission of BiH (CEC BiH) revoked his mandate, and he has no constitutional weight, nor any constitutional legitimacy to form any government. And the second problematic instance is certainly the Constitution of RS, because according to it, the one who can propose the mandate holder is the president of the RS entity, and since the CEC revoked his mandate, legally speaking, he is no longer the president of RS.

Therefore, any appointments Dodik makes in this gap, this vacuum until early elections, are illegal from the perspective of both the BiH Constitution and the Constitution of Republika Srpska. So Dodik, who so often invokes the Constitution of RS - is violating it himself with this act - says Muhasilović.

Despite all this talk about the unconstitutionality of the newly formed RS Government, the federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management Kemal Hrnjić was the first to rush to congratulate Minić on his appointment. Minić himself announced this on the X platform.

Muhasilović says it was a very hasty and thoughtless move - in basketball jargon, he didn't follow the game and made a mistake in his steps.

- Hrnjić probably had some cooperation with Minić, given that they both come from that forestry ministry. I have no doubt that the two of them had a good private relationship and communication at the inter-entity level. However, the problem is that Hrnjić, with such a statement, although he has not yet commented on this issue, has given legitimacy to an illegal government.

Because Minić was appointed, I repeat, by Dodik, who is no longer the president of the RS entity, so his appointment has no legitimacy or legal weight. And the fact that he rushed to congratulate him - clearly shows that he either doesn't understand, or doesn't follow politics, or his personal relationship with Minić is more important to him than any national interest of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Because this process against Dodik is of national interest for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and I think a federal minister should not make such amateurish beginner mistakes - emphasizes Muhasilović.

Bosniak representatives in RS have announced the initiation of appeals to the constitutional courts of RS and BiH regarding the newly formed RS Government. Our interlocutor says that, regardless of the outcomes of these appeals, what is particularly problematic in this whole story is that certain vacuums still exist through which Dodik can slip.

- For example, one of them is that he formally remains the head of the party, which it seems he will not have a problem with vis-à-vis the verdict. And if he remains in that position, the problem is not solved at all, because he will still hold all the strings in his hands. He will appoint his subordinates to positions, and he has already started that process because this new restructuring of power in RS is exclusively done by people who are his absolute subordinates. He will create such a setup that he will actually pull all the strings, and the others will just be his puppets - underlines Muhasilović.

He particularly assessed it as problematic if the institutions are unable to implement the verdict of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, because, he warns, the scenario from the spring of this year could be repeated.

- Everything will again come down to whether the security institutions, if Dodik continues to violate the BiH Constitution, have the capacity and ability to apprehend him. If it is proven that they do not, and he remains the president of SNSD and ignores decisions related to both elections and the decisions of the BiH Court, he would *de facto* end up in some kind of informal independence because it would once again be proven and shown that BiH institutions have no weight and cannot enforce decisions - emphasizes Muhasilović.

He also warns that Dodik and the team gathered around him have already started building parallelism, from shortening the new constitution, through creating a parallel CEC and organizing parallel elections, to appointing people loyal to him to all positions in the RS entity.

The CEC has scheduled early elections for the president of RS for November 23. Muhasilović says they can be held, but their legitimacy will be highly questionable.

- If it happens that SNSD and a part of the opposition, and the key person there is currently Draško Stanivuković, boycott these elections, they can be held - they will not prevent them, but they will not have substantial weight. Therefore, the key role of the opposition is crucial here. And what is problematic with the opposition is that some of them, unfortunately, have started to side with Dodik and pursue some kind of pan-Serbian unity.

And they are doing all this in coordination with Serbia, because it is Serbia that constantly unites them and maintains them and gives them some guidelines on how they should behave. We can very easily come to a situation where the CEC holds elections in the RS entity, but they have no weight because most Serbian politicians boycott them - said Muhasilović.

According to him, there is also the international community, which has some players it is trying to strengthen, in order to possibly prepare them for that post-Dodik period.

- However, I think there is too little time and that Dodik controls too much infrastructure in RS for them to be able to create such a politician or coalition for that post-Dodik scenario so quickly - states Muhasilović.

He emphasizes that there are three possible outcomes: that the CEC manages to hold elections - provided that the opposition turns its back on Dodik, that it manages to hold elections - but they have no weight (if the opposition stands behind Dodik), and the most likely one - that Dodik continues with his parallel elections, but the CEC holds its elections and two parallel systems are created within the RS entity.

- And in the end, everything will again, as I have already said, come down to whether the security institutions can arrest Milorad Dodik if he goes in that direction. And we see serious indications that he has already started in that direction - concludes Muhasilović in an interview with NAP.

(D.K.)