New US military aid package for Ukraine offers a chance to survive the Russian offensive

By Armin Sijamić

After six months of negotiations, US lawmakers approved a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, and President Joseph Biden signed it mid-week, making it operational. This aid means a lot to Kyiv, both militarily and politically, although it will not lead to a reversal in the war. On the other hand, it can bring new losses to Russia, military, economic, and political, as it would now have to weigh how worthwhile it is to take territory at the current pace.

It took more than six months for some US Republicans to accept the administration of Joseph Biden's proposal and adopt the aid package for Ukraine. The six-month delay, partly because supporters of former President Donald Trump opposed it, caused significant damage to Ukraine, especially due to shortages in air defense and artillery shells.


Joseph Biden (Photo: X)

The lack of sufficient air defense systems and missiles allowed Russia to use variations of aerial bombs (FAB-500) weighing several hundred or even a thousand kilograms in recent months, dropping them from aircraft within Russian territory. The only way for Ukraine to prevent this is to shoot down the planes, not to intercept the bombs once they have been launched. With the delivery of new Patriot systems and new quantities of missiles for these systems, Kyiv will have a chance to thwart these attacks. Secondly, with the new aid package, Ukraine will receive millions of shells, which is crucial in preventing the advance of Russian forces.

The reason why Trump and his supporters opposed the Biden administration's proposal is partly a result of internal political struggles ahead of the November elections. However, this stance also changed as the situation on the front lines evolved, threatening to jeopardize the strategic positions of US policy in Eastern Europe, or to nullify the impact of the significant aid Washington has provided to Kyiv.

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A change in stance from Trump and his supporters was evident seven days ago. Trump wrote on social media: "Why can’t Europe match or approximate the same money that the United States has put in to help a country that desperately needs help?" Then, urging Europe to "step up," he added: "As everyone agrees, Ukraine’s survival and strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us!"

New aid for Kyiv

This shift by Trump indicates that a debate is also taking place outside of US legislative bodies, and that those at decision-making positions in the United States largely view Ukraine's survival as strategically important, and that the Biden administration has no intention of abandoning aid.


Volodymyr Zelensky (Photo: X)

The risk the White House is taking is also evident in the admission by US officials this week that long-range ATACMS ballistic missiles were secretly supplied to Kyiv. Previously, Washington had refused to send long-range weapons to Ukraine for fear that Kyiv would strike Russian territory. With these missiles, with a range of up to 300 kilometers, Ukrainians have already hit Crimea and Berdiansk, according to Western media. "I can confirm that the United States provided Ukraine with long-range ATACMS at the direct order of the President," said State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel.

The missiles were not delivered as part of the new $61 billion package, for which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was "powerful" and that weapons would arrive in Ukraine in the coming days. Given the aforementioned secrecy in aid to Kyiv, it should not be surprising if some weapons have already been delivered by the Americans. In addition to the aforementioned air defense and artillery shells, the aid package includes armored vehicles, HIMARS missiles, anti-tank systems, and more.

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Biden's decision concerns Kyiv, Moscow, and Europe

The approval of the new aid package for Ukraine is a major victory for Biden, which is welcomed by Kyiv and European allies. By sending additional aid and fulfilling promises not to abandon Kyiv, the US has boosted the morale of Ukrainians, as well as allies in Europe who see that the world's largest power is still there and providing help. US Republicans demanded and received the freezing of $8 billion in Russian assets to be transferred to Kyiv for defense.

From its European allies, Washington now expects them to fulfill their part of the bargain, namely to allocate billions of euros in aid to Kyiv. This is a boost for proponents of this idea in Europe, while Ukraine expects millions of artillery shells that the European Union has promised, and on which the Czech Republic, Estonia, and France are working in parallel. The goal is to use European money to buy shells from European and allied countries, while simultaneously strengthening their own arms industry and Ukrainian troops.

At the same time, this aid package is a major blow to Russia. It seems that in recent months, Moscow had calculated that divisions would emerge in American politics and that aid to Kyiv would not be approved. Without American aid, it is clear, Ukraine would not have had much of a chance. That is why Russia has advanced in recent months, at the cost of heavy losses, exploiting the confusion among Ukrainians.

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Some claim that Russia is currently losing hundreds of people daily, and Russian sources have stated that it lost over sixteen thousand people in the attack on Avdiivka. With the arrival of new aid, Russia must ask itself whether it will attack with the same intensity as in recent months, as the Ukrainian army will be reinforced with new quantities of weapons. This raises the question of the status of the Russian summer offensive, which is expected in Kyiv.

The new aid package is an important signal that Ukraine and the West have not faltered, although Russian aggression will continue. For the authorities in Kyiv, this is additional help while they mobilize the population due to a shortage of soldiers on the front line. Thus, the authorities in Kyiv will be able to give the population not only calls to war but also proof that Ukraine is not alone and that the West is ready to help in ways that were unimaginable even last year. How successful Ukraine will be in this will be shown in the coming days as the battle for the strategically important city of Chasiv Yar and the villages west of Avdiivka continues. The Russians need a quick breakthrough to the west there, and Kyiv is looking for a way to stop the attacks, take a breather, and plan the next steps.