EUFOR's silence on Dodik's call proves peacekeepers are neutralized, peace is dying: The state must take its survival into its own hands!

By: Rasim Belko

There are moments in a state's history when silence is no longer an option. When passivity and waiting become the same as complicity. Bosnia and Herzegovina has been living in such a moment for months, while the convicted and dismissed president of the RS entity, Milorad Dodik, crosses one line after another daily, testing if anyone has the strength to finally tell him enough.

His latest move, the call to EUFOR to stop at the inter-entity line, is not just another provocation but an open attempt to draw international forces into his separatist agenda.

More serious than Dodik's obsessions is the fact that EUFOR and the European Union as a whole have had no clear answer to such attacks for months. Dodik is undermining the constitutional order of the state, threatening its institutions, calling for divisions, and invoking the war logic of the nineties, while EUFOR acts quieter than ever. If this is not a form of capitulation in peacetime, it is difficult to find another term that would better describe their position.

When European forces took over the mandate from SFOR in 2004, it was expected that they would at least have equal determination and authority. Instead, EUFOR has turned into an invisible observer that occasionally organizes patrols through villages or presents exercises with local police forces. There is no answer to every serious question about what they would do in case of an attempted destabilization. There is no plan, no readiness, not even a minimum of political will.

Except in parts of the country where Bosniaks are the majority, they haven't investigated chess clubs there yet, and the tendency is that they will deal with that too. In the RS, on the other hand, they are far less present and operate even less operationally.

The European Union does not even have a definition of what an act of destabilization of Bosnia and Herzegovina would mean for it. For some, it is an open armed conflict, while for others, an attack on state institutions is enough. There is no common stance, and therefore no pre-agreed steps. In this ambiguity, Dodik finds room for his blackmail policy. He knows that EUFOR does not have a ready plan, and that's why he stretches the rope to the breaking point.

The passivity of international forces in practice means support. When Dodik says that EUFOR should stop at the inter-entity line and does not immediately receive a clear answer that this will never happen, he receives a signal that he can continue. This is not just a lack of courage but also a result of the open actions of certain member states of the European Union that see Dodik as a useful ally. Viktor Orbán and his Hungary have been sabotaging any serious action against Dodik for years, and Austria is also influential when deciding how EUFOR will behave on the ground. European decisions are paralyzed by interests, so passivity cannot be considered neutrality. This passivity is a conscious positioning that Dodik uses.

It is worth recalling everything Dodik has done in the last six months. He announced the abolition of the competencies of state institutions in the RS. He attacked the Court and Prosecutor's Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He passed laws by which he tries to derogate the decisions of the Constitutional Court. He spoke about the formation of an entity army... Each of these steps represents an open violation of the Dayton Peace Agreement and the Constitution of BiH. Now he is calling on EUFOR to occupy the separation lines from the war. The reaction of EUFOR to each of these moves was the same. Silence and a few bureaucratic sentences without a stance.
Dodik is not afraid of sanctions because he is used to them. He is not afraid of political defeats either because he always relativizes them in front of his voters. He is only afraid of a decisive and swift reaction that leaves him no room to play. Precisely that is missing, and precisely that encourages him to go further.

While Dodik and his associates were adopting the law on the non-implementation of the decisions of the Constitutional Court, European officials were walking around Sarajevo and promising support for the European path of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Instead of saying that such a law will never be applied, they avoided any concrete stance. While Dodik was talking on entity television about the possible formation of the RS army, the commander of EUFOR was giving an interview in which he spoke about a "reliable partnership with local authorities." When pro-Bosnian political factors warned that peace was threatened, officials from Brussels said that they "do not see an immediate threat."

At the same time, Security Council sessions ended without any clear message to Dodik. Instead of decisiveness, BiH received a message that it was, at best, the subject of a bureaucratic procedure.

Here, pro-Bosnian politics must come into play. There is no more time for diplomatic phrases, for calls and appeals. The moment has come to say never, and we will not allow anyone to draw new lines of division in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dodik's request for EUFOR to stop at the inter-entity line is nothing more than an attempt to legitimize a border that does not exist. It is a direct blow to the internationally recognized sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is a return to 1992. It is political aggression.

Therefore, the answer must be simple and unambiguous. That will not pass, and that will never happen. If EUFOR does not have the courage to say it, then pro-Bosnian forces must make it clear that they will prevent any attempt to divide the country by all available means. The European Union has long lacked a strategy for the Western Balkans. Instead of a serious approach, Brussels is dealing with trade agreements, gas interests, and internal divisions, while Bosnia and Herzegovina becomes collateral damage. Russia is destabilizing the country through Dodik, Serbia is playing a double game between Brussels and Moscow, and the European Union is acting as if everything is under control.

In such an atmosphere, Dodik gets the feeling that everything is allowed. If EUFOR doesn't even know what it would do in case of destabilization, then it's clear that the European Union has no plan. It doesn't know how to define what destabilization of Bosnia and Herzegovina means and therefore doesn't know how to react. This is not just irresponsibility but a conscious policy of defeat.

Pro-Bosnian forces, therefore, must not wait for EUFOR to react. That wait would open new maneuver spaces and opportunities for Dodik.

This is the moment when it must be clearly stated through the state institutions, from the Presidency downwards, that the country is indivisible. It must be stated and shown institutionally that we are ready to defend the country, even if the price is peace itself! EUFOR's passivity does not mean that we give up our right to defense. If Dodik tries, he will be prevented by all means.

Such a message will be well understood by both Dodik and the EU, and without it, the SNSD leader will be encouraged, and the EU will continue to passively lull us with reforms. The time for false promises is over. The time for waiting for EUFOR to show its muscles is over. The time for silence has expired.

This country survived a siege, genocide, and ethnic cleansing. It has also survived Dodik's twenty years of threats. It will survive his latest attempt.

The absence of a swift EUFOR response must be a clear signal to the pro-Bosnian factor that the state can only rely on itself and that it is time to act that way again.

Relying on anyone outside Bosnia and Herzegovina is the wrong path that leads to an abyss. Therefore, in the absence of an EUFOR reaction, it must be clearly stated that the lines Dodik envisions are dead. There is only one red line, and it is called Bosnia and Herzegovina. No one will ever cross that line with anything!