The Cyprusfication of BiH: A Three-Act Play – Domestic Silence, External Lobbies, and the Quiet Dissolution of the State

By: A. Čorbo-Zećo

If we carefully read and listen to the presentations at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly session in Dayton, we cannot help but wonder if the so-called "Cyprus model" is indeed one of the most current and dangerous plans for the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).

Information about this has reached the author of these lines from multiple sources, and everything we heard in Dayton and at the conference, which seemed to follow an agenda from Zagreb, confirms the claims that the country is being divided into two entities under different international influences – the Federation of BiH under the auspices of the European Union and Republika Srpska under the control of Russia and Serbia.

Calls for dialogue on these grounds are coming almost synchronously from Dayton (read: Zagreb) and Republika Srpska.

This scenario is not accidental; it has been carefully agreed upon between certain actors in Washington, with Croatia playing an important role as a lobbyist and coordinator.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of BiH, Elmedin Konaković, who started this narrative in September 2023, certainly knows about this. And it was precisely then that preparations for the public began.

“A part of the political scene in Europe is considering how to support only the FBiH, without supporting RS. If the authorities of RS continue like this, I fear they will force serious European officials to do so,” Elmedin Konaković said in September 2023.

And Republika Srpska has continued precisely in this manner – following the well-trodden paths of war policy on the road to independence. And accordingly, the Republic of Croatia has joined them, through lobbying and all sorts of machinations.

The plan, Patria's sources claim, is for the Federation of BiH, with strong support from Croatia, to enter into a kind of alliance with Zagreb, while RS would remain in the sphere of Russian and Serbian influence. The idea is actually a continuation of the "Trojka" experiment, which has so far prevented quarrels between Bosniaks and Croats, but has established a new dimension of division that would now be formalized at the international level.

This is not just a theory; preparatory visits to Sarajevo, such as that of IRI in January, clearly show that the plan is already in an advanced stage. At meetings with leading politicians, the formation of a so-called Christian coalition, which would confirm this model, was discussed, while through media and political mechanisms, a false perception of "objectivity" and the necessity of such a solution is being created. None of the BiH officials have revealed these details, remaining in a "vow of silence".

Financial support for these activities could come precisely through IRI from Belgrade, and possibly in cooperation with the American conservative foundation Heritage Foundation, where the role of Max Primorac, close to Croatian politics, is key. Through their letter, we could predict what the ultimate goal is.

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HDZ via American Think Tank Wants to Prevent Southern Interconnection: Murphy Forces Christians to Obey Muslims

(Patria) - The American think tank Heritage Foundation sent a letter to hundreds of addresses condemning the efforts of US Ambassador to BiH Michael Murphy to have the FBiH Parliament adopt the Southern Interconnection Law, which would mean that BH Gas would be in charge of...

Their influence in Washington is already well-established and has long shaped foreign policy towards BiH.

Unfortunately, what is most concerning is that a part of the Bosniak political scene, including Konaković and Trojka, is not loudly and clearly opposing this plan. Their silence or unclear positions further encourage lobbyists to continue with these divisions.

The only chance to prevent this dangerous scenario is a strong and unified resistance within BiH, supported internationally as well, through key friends of the country like Turkey. Without that support and without the determination of domestic leaders, the division and further fragmentation of BiH become increasingly likely.

It is time to wake up because, if we allow this plan to materialize, Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be a country where everyone can build a future together, but will be divided, held captive by foreign interests, and susceptible to constant tensions and conflicts.