Is it better to start a conversation with Dodik than to be blackmailed by Čović through the Election Law?

By: Rasim Belko @rasimbelko

Milorad Dodik, SNSD and their partners attempted an attack on the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina. And that is an undeniable fact. Just as it is an undeniable fact that the judicial and police apparatus of BiH failed to react as it should have – by arresting those who attacked the constitutional order. However, the decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH, which were suspended until a final decision, and from which the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (NSRS) fired shots at the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have disabled the further development of Milorad Dodik's plan.

Dodik today appears as a penitent, ready to accept the final neutralization of his demands. Even more ready for the political currents in Bosnia and Herzegovina to return to the track they were on before the beginning of 2025.

And it is time that, after more than two months of the saga surrounding the punishment for the attack on BiH's constitutional order, someone in Sarajevo begins to seriously consider political options for exiting the crisis, which clearly does not suit anyone, least of all the state, which it holds in a stalemate.

Today, it is more than clear that the blitzkrieg attempted by the expired ambassador Michael Murphy and his political protégés Elmedin Konaković, Nermin Nikšić, and Edin Forto yielded no results.

On the contrary, the bulldozers and erasers with which Konaković and the rest of the Trojka (Trio) tried to remove Dodik and erase his traces from power have turned into a multi-barreled launcher of wishes and goals that Dragan Čović tried to exploit the stalemate.

Underestimating the strength of Dragan Čović and his role in the attempt to overthrow Milorad Dodik has led us to a situation where SNSD ministers hold the key to Serbian parity in the Council of Ministers, while at the same time SNSD has a control mechanism in the House of Peoples. Thus, the state remains trapped, because Čović did not even think of shooting his old friend and partner Milorad Dodik in the back.

With Murphy's departure, the Trojka was left headless, and the blitzkrieg turned into a fiasco that today keeps the country in political chaos, while simultaneously dragging it into serious security and economic problems.

The Trojka's attempt to extricate itself through partnership with the weak opposition from RS had no theoretical chance of success. Firstly, that opposition lacks objective strength in the BiH Parliament, and secondly, and far more importantly, Čović does not want to trade the corpulent Dodik for political crumbs in the form of figures like Vukanović, Borenović, and Miličević.

However, Čović saw an opportunity in the weakness of the RS opposition and the loyalty of the Trojka to realize goals he had not been able to for the past two decades. And the key goal of all goals for the Latin from the hacienda is the model of the Election Law that permanently enables the HDZ member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Federation of BiH entity is divided into two electoral units. He packaged all of this in cellophane through which the Trojka does not see the hidden essence, and the RS opposition is not interested anyway.

The solution to the overall crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina has thus become stuck between the first-instance convicted attacker on the constitutional order and the political goals of the wise Čović. Around this chasm, Murphy's politically immature kindergarten circles.

The stalemate suits no one. Čović's proposal does not suit Bosnia and Herzegovina, because its realization would mean its final division. The only one willing to discuss his goals, verdict, and accusations is actually Milorad Dodik.

And I believe it is time for someone in Sarajevo to rise above floating in the mud and show readiness for dialogue. Because, no matter how much the current authorities in Sarajevo and their analysts offer us arguments that there can be no negotiations or talks with an attacker on the constitutional order, the undeniable fact is that Milorad Dodik was carrying out a wide range of attacks on the constitutional order even before February 27th, and that did not prevent the Trojka from offering him to us as a legal and legitimate partner for government, labeling him the European Dodik.

Today, even they realize that Dodik is neither reformed nor European, but he is the only force in the RS entity with whom an agreement can be reached. This is the factual situation and it dictates the participants at the negotiating table. What and how Sarajevo politics will bring to the negotiating table must be defined more broadly, because unfortunately, in the city on the Miljacka, we have no one similar to Dodik and Čović, so the public must open their eyes and demand that the condition for negotiations with Dodik be state property, a final resolution of border issues, a return to the constitutional and legal framework of BiH…

The alternative to negotiations with Dodik is not and cannot be gambling with the interests of the state and every individual in it, and that is precisely what will be the consequence of getting used to the stalemate as the new normal under the blackmail of Dragan Čović's interests to open paths to a third entity. Because, the Trojka today offers us a story about Čović just as they told us about Dodik yesterday.

And yes, regarding Dodik's verdict for not respecting Christian Schmidt's decision, it should not be an issue that burdens and hinders Sarajevo politics from responding to Dodik. Because, Bosniaks in Sarajevo respected his decisions, and now it is returning to them as a boomerang effect vertically and horizontally. Instead of having those who carry the legality of election winners in power, they have Schmidt-Murphy political miscarriages as representatives. Dodik did not want to allow himself that, and whether he will pay the price depends on the second-instance verdict, but until then, he is legally innocent.

Sarajevo, Bosnian, Bosniak, or whatever you define it as, politics must free itself from the shackles of naivety that some centers of power will solve our problems, because it is evident that the whole world is currently struggling with difficult-to-solve problems. And even if it weren't struggling, we know that this world we call the international community has never been ready to fully and qualitatively resolve the issue of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

It is time, for all of us, to try to negotiate with Dodik, because he speaks Bosnian better than English anyway!