Elections in Spain: Will the far-right enter the government of the country presiding over the European Union?

Written by: Armin Sijamić

Spain goes to early parliamentary elections on Sunday, which are important in many ways. The main question is whether Vox, described by opponents as a far-right party, will enter the government, or whether it is possible to form a government without them. 37.4 million people have the right to vote.

After the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) suffered a defeat in local and regional elections at the end of May, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called early elections. He then said he was taking responsibility for the defeat and that the people should be asked whether he and his party should continue to lead the country. The decision to call early elections was not a surprise, but the timing was. Thus, Spain will go to the polls for the first time in July, in temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in most of the country and while around ten million people are on annual holidays. Therefore, the elections are expected to have the lowest turnout in history.

Established parties

In addition to the aforementioned Socialists, since the fall of Francisco Franco's regime, Spanish political life has been dominated by the People's Party (PP), which belongs to the centre-right or right. These two parties, two political agendas under different names and in different parties, dominate the political scene, relying on Spain's historical, social, linguistic, national, economic, regional and religious specificities. They are also the main favourites to win in these elections.

The PSOE and PP, with the support of smaller parties, have alternated in power. This two-party division was broken by Podemos (We Can), when it emerged in 2014. In the following years, Podemos came to power in a coalition with the PSOE. The emergence of Podemos shook Spain. This party gained the support of those who were disappointed with the PSOE, but also of many whose ideas were far from the mainstream political currents. Some of Podemos' positions were radical, such as calling a referendum to abolish the monarchy and proclaim a republic. To this day, Podemos has become the junior partner of the PSOE, and will enter the elections as part of the left-wing coalition Sumar, whose name indicates that it is a unification, or summation, this time of fifteen parties and groups.

On the other side of the political spectrum, the party Ciudadanos (Citizens) tried to exploit dissatisfaction with the PP and centrist parties, seeking to present liberalism as a middle ground between the right, the centre and those who do not want the left. In the May elections, the party suffered a debacle. From several hundred seats in regional parliaments, it failed to win even ten.

Far-right gathers the dissatisfied

Sánchez's government has faced numerous problems since it was established in 2019. The emergence of the coronavirus fundamentally changed his economic plans, as Spain was left without revenue from tourism. Official data shows that Spain earned 160 billion euros from tourism last year. Closed borders during the pandemic caused huge losses. The country currently has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union.

In addition, together with Podemos and its partners, Sánchez's government worked on gender policies and the status of the LGBT population, the issue of identity, the relationship with Franco's regime and addressing the consequences of the referendum in Catalonia. Sánchez formed a coalition with Basque separatists from the Bildu party, led by Arnaldo Otegi, previously convicted as a member of the terrorist organisation ETA. Despite everything, the Spanish economy under Sánchez is growing and has one of the lowest inflation rates in the EU, standing at less than two percent.

On the political margins since 2013, there is the Vox party (voice, in Latin). Vox describes itself as a right-wing party, but critics say it is an extreme and populist right. The party's growth began in 2014 when its current president, Santiago Abascal, took the helm and gathered some dissatisfied members of the PP. Initially, the party was, similar to the case of Podemos and the PSOE, dissatisfied with the state of the Spanish right, but grew into much more than that. Today it is a Eurosceptic, anti-LGBT, anti-immigrant, anti-feminist and anti-left party, based on Spanish nationalism and ultra-conservatism.

Growing support and extreme views

Vox has been growing from election to election (general, local, regional, European Parliament elections) in recent years and is expected to continue growing. With the slogan "For Spain", Vox entered the Spanish parliament for the first time in 2019 with 10.26 percent of the vote. It was then believed that Vox had picked up some votes from dissatisfied PP voters. In the aforementioned May local and regional elections, the PP won, and Vox received three times more votes than in the 2019 elections. The PP offered them cooperation in some regions and they formed governments.

Their success is no longer a surprise. After the 2019 elections, a study showed that Vox differs from far-right parties in Europe. Namely, European far-rightists draw votes from rural areas, from people with lower levels of education and lower incomes. On the other hand, Vox receives votes from urban areas, from members of the middle class and the relatively educated. Simply put, Vox appeals to those for whom it is important to identify as Spaniards and who want to resist political and cultural trends from other parts of the world.

Abascal recently described how he sees Sánchez. "For Pedro Sánchez, protecting democracy means that rapists, coup plotters, thieves, Txapote and Muhammad vote for him," adding that "the first votes Sánchez will have on the 23rd will be the votes of freed rapists and paedophiles, pardoned coup plotters, rewarded embezzlers, and probably subjects of Morocco with Spanish ID cards." So, he says that Sánchez is supported by criminals who are free, terrorists (Txapote is a member of ETA and carried out numerous attacks), migrants (Muhammad as the 60th most common name for children born in Spain last year), coup plotters from Catalonia (the government pardoned some of them) and Moroccans, targeting Sánchez's strong ties with the Moroccan king, Mohammed VI, to whom Spain gives money to keep some illegal migrants from that country.

Vox wants tax cuts, allowing people to carry weapons, advocates for the protection of domestic companies, for the right of parents to control their children's education, opposes globalism and multinational corporations, supports self-employment and wants to stop illegal immigration. They say that certain imams should be expelled and certain mosques closed. They oppose "totalitarian laws of gender ideology" that "discriminate against men." Abascal says that "Europe is threatened by a mob of anti-Europeans... who are not ready to adapt to our way of life and our laws," and that "Europe cannot continue to receive immigrants from Muslim countries." He denies climate change.

In addition, he wants to strengthen central authority, suppress separatist movements and wants Spain as a constitutional monarchy. Vox is in favour of banning abortion, strengthening the status of the family and Christian values. For rapists, they propose life imprisonment sentences. In foreign policy, they support Donald Trump and cultivate ties with Hungary's ruling Fidesz party, with Brothers of Italy, to which Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni belongs, and with Marine Le Pen's party. They would provide Ukraine with all necessary assistance to defend itself against Russian aggression.

Who will win?

According to polls, the PP will win the elections with between 32 and 34 percent of the vote. The Socialists should have 28 or 29 percent. Vox could win between 13 and 14, and Sumar between 12 and 13 percent. If the results are like this, it means that the PP and Vox would have 176 of the 350 seats in the lower house of parliament, which would be enough to form a government. In a televised debate, PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, according to polls, defeated Sánchez.

As things stand, the PP and Vox are closer to forming a government, but other combinations are also possible. By August 17, the lower house of parliament must be constituted and a speaker elected, which could be an indicator of what the future government will look like. But even after that, there is a possibility that coalition governments will not be formed and new elections will be called. Feijóo offered Sánchez a coalition to thus eliminate the extreme right (Vox) and the extreme left (Sumar).

Brussels is closely watching the elections, because Spain took over the six-month presidency of the union on July 1. Vox in the Spanish government is not what they would like to see, and the PP is a proven pro-European party. Sánchez remaining in power would certainly be the best news for Brussels since the government would continue the current political course. Sánchez's victory, while Spain presides over the EU, could also be important for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Namely, the current Spanish prime minister is a former employee of the OHR and the situation in this part of Europe is closer to him than to his competitors.