DODIK IS FINISHED. The path to the abyss of Jelavić's fate!

By: Rasim Belko @rasimbelko

Much water has flowed from Barry's amendments and Wolfgang Petritsch in 2000 to the amendments to the BiH Criminal Code by Christian Schmidt. Political floods caused by pure separatism, and resistance to the OHR as one of the dams against such actions, swallowed Dodik before Dodik.

Ante Jelavić paid the price for the delusion that he could realize Tuđman's eternal dream of a Croatian Banovina, and by resisting the removability of power, he tried to create a parallel system of Croatian self-government, as a prerequisite for reviving Herceg-Bosna and finally uniting with Croatia. For the continuation of the story, it is not unimportant to know that Jelavić embarked on this action after his HDZ was ousted from power in the Federation of BiH.

However, Jelavić made a mistake, or rather, underestimated the strength of the OHR and the lack of broader support, even within the Croatian community. His strategy relied on symbolism and emotions, but it lacked a realistic basis for success in the geopolitical environment of the time.

Twenty-odd years later, Jelavić after Jelavić, made the same mistake. Milorad Dodik underestimated the international community, the strength of the OHR, and the American-British presence in BiH, and he was left without the expected broader support, even within the Serbian community.

Strategically, Dodik, like Jelavić, relied on symbolism and emotions. True, Dodik also expected that geopolitical circumstances caused by the political resurrection of Donald Trump would work in his favor, but this mistake will prove fatal for separatism and the separatist Dodik.

Like Jelavić, Dodik also embarked on a destructive path the moment he realized that under the pressure of the American-British forces in BiH, he would be removed from state power. At that time, the leader of the RS and SNSD had not yet been convicted; the verdict came later and, by all accounts, was the seal on the political career of a two-decade-long burden on the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Milorad Dodik is finished! That it is only a question of how long the final stage of his separatist path will last is clear to him and the people around him, who, by copying their political leader, are stepping into the role of cowboys on the Vrbas, threatening security and stability.

"You are shooting with an empty gun, maybe someone will shoot with a full one," said Dodik's chief operative Višković, sending a message to all who could be a threat to the self-destructive separatist campaign.

Višković then adds that the right to self-defense is one of the guaranteed rights, presumably forgetting Dodik's usual stance on self-determination. Višković forgets that those who undermine the constitutional order of the state do not have the right to self-defense against the system and criminal proceedings, as that would mean the victory of destructive forces.

Therefore, the message that Višković directly conveyed is: "I will go my own way and let's see who will stand in my way!", and Milorad Dodik, between the lines in about 50 nervous sentences, clearly indicates that their path can only be the one that leads to Vojkovići, where those who pursue anti-state policies belong.

Dodik's sentence "We are now at the forefront, just as the Croatian people were once at the forefront. They received tanks that destroyed it. But there is one important difference, they did not have a republic," clearly indicates that the leader from Laktaši is aware of the consequences if he fails, and it is already quite clear that he will meet the fate of Jelavić.

Twenty-odd years after Jelavić's downfall, Milorad Dodik has stepped into the same trap, convinced that he can dance on the tightrope between symbolism and reality, while the winds of the international community blow against him. However, where Jelavić fell under the weight of his own dreams, Dodik is now stumbling over the stone of his arrogance and the inconsistency of his advisors, while his allies melt away like snow under the spring sun.

The OHR, unlike in the time of Michael Murphy, under the umbrella of American-British forces, is not just a dam – it is a storm that clears the horizon of separatist mirages. While Jelavić dreamed of a Banovina, Dodik fantasized about a republic carved out of the heart of BiH, but both forgot that history does not forgive those who trample on its lessons. Dodik's verdict is not just a seal on paper – it is a thunderclap from a clear sky that heralds the end of a dark chapter. His cowboys can gallop through the city on the Vrbas and brandish empty revolvers, but victory does not lie ahead of them, but a headlong fall into the abyss of oblivion.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is far above the ashes of their ambitions, while Dodik's star fades into the shadow of Jelavić's fate. In the end, the question is not whether he will fall, but how much more noise he will make as he sinks into the silence that history reserves for those who caused it.