Dodik and Čović - End of an Alliance or a New Power Game: Milorad Threatens Dragan with Percentages - You'll Be 8 Percent

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

In the political life of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where relations among key actors often shift between alliance and subtle threats, the latest statement by Milorad Dodik directed at Dragan Čović carries particular weight.

Dodik, the leader of the SNSD and President of Republika Srpska, sent a clear message to Čović and the HDZ BiH – “if you play games with the Muslims, I cannot help you.” This sentence is not just a political observation, but a direct message containing an element of pressure and warning.

Is this the impending end of the long-standing relationship between Čović and Dodik, who have never severed their partnership despite the representatives of the Troika and the former US ambassador to BiH trying to convince us otherwise for two years?

Dodik openly emphasizes that it was he who “kept the Croats from sinking” over the past 15 years, stressing that without him their political position would be significantly weaker. With these words, Dodik aims to position himself as a key ally of the Croats in BiH, but also as someone without whose support the HDZ BiH could lose political power and influence.

The statement “If we agree on a percentage, they will have eight percent. Do you want to play that game?” suggests that Dodik is ready to call into question the parity and position of Croats in BiH’s political structure if Čović does not play by his rules. Such rhetoric resembles political blackmail more than a partnership.

On the other hand, Čović emphasized in his address that the HDZ BiH is “on its own side” and that “the Troika has no business looking at where the HDZ stands.” This statement came ahead of a meeting between the HDZ and the Troika, and can be interpreted as an attempt to distance himself from any pressures, both from the Troika and from Dodik. However, Čović’s key message remains his insistence on the “constitutional equality of the Croatian people” and changes to the Election Law, which places him in a situation where he must seek support from both the West and within BiH.

Dodik’s statement is not coincidental – it comes at a time when the HDZ BiH is increasingly approaching partners from Sarajevo, while Dodik continues his secessionist rhetoric. It is clear that the SNSD leader does not want to lose Čović as an ally, but at the same time he is telling him that any calculation with other political options will have consequences.

The question is, can Čović balance pressures from different sides and remain faithful to his main goal – strengthening the political position of Croats in BiH? Or will Dodik, using his influence and mechanisms, force the HDZ BiH to remain in his political bloc? This power game is just entering its crucial phase, and the next moves of both leaders will show who will be the real winner in this political maneuvering.