Banja Luka and Belgrade accuse the West of prejudging Dodik and wanting a change of government: Does Vučić remain an EU favorite?

By Amra Vrabac

Reactions to the second-instance conviction of RS and SNSD president Milorad Dodik are not subsiding. As expected, most of them are from the RS entity and neighboring Serbia.

At yesterday's press conference and during Milorad Dodik's address, we heard accusations against the European Union, claiming it created this decision. In this context, Dodik mentioned the Head of the EU Delegation, Luigi Soreca, and the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos.

He announced that European ambassadors could turn off their phones and that they have nothing more to seek in the RS. Dodik called on his associates to do the same and reject European ambassadors.
He stated that the RS must retaliate.

"This is the moment to reject European integration and say that the RS is no longer in European integration," Dodik said in yesterday's address.

In today's statement by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, following the session of the National Security Council and the conclusions on Dodik's verdict, the focus was also on the West in the context of their role in that verdict. He stated that he had spoken with two world leaders who told him how Serbia should behave in this case.

“All of this was done by Western powers. Even when I offered a compromise with the RS, now I understand why they turned a blind eye. They had already made the verdict. Now I know it was a mistake for Dodik to go to Sarajevo to be driven by Džuvo for the release from detention, thinking they had changed their attitude. I have learned not to trust these foreigners,” Vučić said.

One of the conclusions is that Serbia does not accept the verdict against Dodik.

He even spoke about the potential visit of Jens Stoltenberg to Serbia, who is the former Secretary General of NATO. He also presented a theory that there will be an attempt to remove the High Representative Christian Schmidt because "Dodik is resolved," and a theory about spies in Serbia whose goal is to change the government and finish off "Serbia and the RS."

And while Vučić deals with the judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina, showing disrespect for one of the pillars of power in Bosnia and Herzegovina and its state sovereignty, problems are piling up in Serbia. Vučić will likely remain a partner of the European Union and the West, which imposed him as the region's leader, for some time to come.

It should not be forgotten that almost every important visit by American or European officials begins in Serbia with a meeting with Vučić, from where views on Bosnia and Herzegovina are often heard. In those Washington-Brussels circles, the idea has been created that Vučić is the leader of the Western Balkans region and that he is the one who can maintain stability. Such a role is not even held by Croatia, an EU and NATO member, but by Vučić, who is "a leader by the EU's recipe." But at this moment, it seems that Vučić is no longer one of the desirable players, so the question of who could be the new leader of Serbia is open.

Months-long protests in Serbia, which began in December 2024 after the deaths of 15 citizens in the collapse of the canopy at the Railway Station in Novi Sad, have shaken Vučić's position. Resignations, arrests, corruption, demands for elections, and pressure from the opposition have been in focus for eight months.

Vučić used the most repressive methods against the demonstrators who held several mass rallies, the images of which went around the world. Arrests, police force, sound cannons, and even endangering the livelihoods of those protesting by leaving them without pay, jobs, or in other ways.

Vučić has shown that he cannot control a large portion of Serbia's citizens, and almost the entire school year has been lost due to protests and blockades of faculties and schools.

The protests have also introduced uncertainty among investors, who are leaving Serbia or abandoning investments. Numerous companies have closed across Serbia, and by EXPO 2027, it is highly questionable what will happen to Serbia's economy and who will be at its head in two years.