HDZ remains with SNSD, Čović opposes new Schmidt interventions, regrets eliminating SDA from power?
By: Amra Vrabac The BiH Ministry of Security has been run by Deputy Minister Ivica Bošnjak (HDZ BiH) since the arrest of Nenad Nešić in December 2024. Nešić resigned at the end of January, and the Chairperson of the Council of Ministers of BiH authorized Bošnjak to perform all duties. This means he also votes at the sessions of the Council of Ministers of BiH. Thus, HDZ suddenly gained another seat in the Council of Ministers of BiH.
Due to the current political situation, first the attempt by the "Trojka" parties to form a new majority with the opposition from RS, and then the attacks on the constitutional order by the leadership of RS led by Milorad Dodik and SNSD, the appointment of a new BiH Minister of Security is on hold.
In the midst of the crisis, in early March, Krišto submitted the name Goran Selak for Minister of Security, from the SNSD quota. However, Selak withdrew himself, and the entire procedure was halted. A few days later, an initiative was sent to Borjana Krišto to appoint Nebojša Vukanović as Minister of Security. However, Krišto ignored this proposal, and according to her statements, no appointment will be made until a political agreement is reached. Given Vukanović's increasingly sharp stances on HDZ and Dragan Čović, it was conveyed to Vukanović, who is also a current member of the National Assembly of RS, through media mouthpieces, that he will not be the Minister of Security.
Although there was an attempt by HDZ in March to form a new majority with the opposition from RS and the "Trojka" parties, nothing came of it. From this distance, it seems that HDZ had a "fig in their pocket" at the time and that Čović had no real intention of abandoning the alliance with SNSD, but was merely buying time.
When the representatives of the "Trojka" parties finally realized that Čović would not agree to change partners at the state level, their confessions and retellings of what he said about Dodik at meetings began. The head of NIP, Elmedin Konaković, expressed his astonishment at Čović's positions a few days ago, stating that the HDZ leader is no longer cold and measured, and that an inappropriate change in behavior is noticeable, especially towards the High Representative Christian Schmidt. Predrag Kojović also spoke publicly about what Čović thinks of Dodik, yet he does not disown him.
What is interesting in the past period is how neither Dodik nor anyone else has disputed that HDZ now has one more position in the Council of Ministers of BiH. SNSD clearly did this out of gratitude that Krišto did not appoint Vukanović, but also because of the unity of SNSD and HDZ in the House of Peoples of the BiH Parliament, where they jointly avoid the dismissal of Nikola Špirić and two SNSD ministers in the Council of Ministers.
Another scenario is unfolding in the background, which is the election of the Deputy Director of SIPA. After the scandal created by Darko Ćulum when he left the position of SIPA Director at the order of the political leadership of RS, following the adoption of several unconstitutional laws that undermine state judicial institutions and SIPA, space is now being created for HDZ to get the position of Deputy Director of SIPA. Two members of the Independent Board of the BiH Parliament from the Serb people have been obstructing the quorum in recent months, and at the continuation of the session on May 19, scoring and a ranking list of candidates were created and sent to the BiH Minister of Security. Dragan Andrić, a long-time SIPA cadre close to HDZ structures, is convincingly in first place. Although it is questionable whether this appointment will happen, knowing the stance of SNSD cadres, the possibility that SNSD will vote for the appointment of the Deputy Director of SIPA is not excluded, which would partially relieve the pressure on Ćulum, whom the Council of Ministers of BiH would then dismiss based on his resignation.
However, HDZ is also comfortable with this situation, as confirmed by Dragan Čović's statement that the BiH Ministry of Security is functioning well even without a minister, implying that Ivica Bošnjak is performing all duties. In this context, Čović strongly opposes any intervention by the High Representative Christian Schmidt. But Čović did not mind Schmidt's intervention on election night in 2022 when the Constitution of FBiH was suspended, and the number of delegates in the peoples' clubs in the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament was changed, thereby bypassing SDA in the formation of the FBiH Government.
In the last few months, Čović has begun to publicly state that they made a mistake when they outvoted the Bosniak Caucus in the House of Peoples and voted for Kemal Ademović for the leadership of the House.
In an interview published today, Čović said in the plural that "they" have "eliminated" SDA as the dominant party among Bosniaks.
"It was perceived that way too - as an elimination, and of course, those people want to create an environment today that will enable them to dominate in the upcoming elections," said Čović.
This stance from Čović comes after two years of governing with the "Trojka" parties, which have not yet enabled changes to the BiH Election Law that would secure a place for HDZ in the BiH Presidency, but also a new federal unit consisting of five cantons, which is equivalent to a third entity. It also comes after a recent meeting with SDA leader Bakir Izetbegović at a gathering outside of BiH.
Given that positions are already being taken for next year's General Elections, everyone will be extra cautious not to make a mistake that could cost them election results.
"Trojka" will be particularly cautious, unless they are prepared to give Čović what SDA did not even after the Mostar Agreement in 2020, because the consequences of such so-called "legitimate representation" would be irreparable.
