Referendum: Possible sanctions for Republika Srpska

By: Sead Omeragic

Aleksandar Vucic and Tomislav Nikolic have scheduled consultations for later today on the topic of PIC's decision (Peace Implementation Council in BiH that consists of 55 countries and organizations, which participate in creating and maintaining peace in BiH). A harsh tone that the member-countries of PIC's Governing Board applied when discussing referendum and behavior of Milorad Dodik and the RS government, along with traditional Russia's reservations, has gotten Serb side rather worried.

They have reasons to be worried – 7 days from now another session will be held at which the members of the PIC's Governing Board will vote by majority, and thereby neutralize Russia's position.

It is clear that referendum and Dodik's politics will be fiercely condemned once more, and that the high representative will then have his friends free to act on the matter in accordance with his 'Bonn’s powers' as the supreme authority in interpreting of the civil part of the Dayton Peace Accord. That will be deadly for a risky and dubious political option, such as this Dodik's game with referendum.

Therefore, Vucic's senseless stories about destabilization of the region will cease thereby, as well as his wholly unfounded and fake concerns about peace. PIC's position has clearly determined the destabilizing factor in the region, and who is at fault for attempts at legal destruction in BiH.

Vucic will no longer be able to gather ambassadors behind closed doors in order to warn them about destabilization of the region because he received a definitive message that everything is clear now. Furthermore, he will have to unquestioningly respect legal decisions of the Peace Implementation Council.

His peer from the government Ivica Dacic will have to continue repeating radical views, but the real politics of Serbia towards BiH will take a different, more peaceful path. Serbian media will act equally agitating, but those lessons have been already learned.

Peace Implementation Council has a clearly organized system by which it works and any surprises are hardly possible.

What is next then? National Assembly will negate decision of the Constitutional Court BiH about referendum cancellation, mostly because such a development suits the opposition in RS just before the elections. This must be a paradox: What Milorad Dodik pushes forward, will definitely turn against him.

Should National Assembly of RS dare to make such a decision, sanctions against RS will most probably follow, which they will not be able to bear longer than a month or two. It is hardly possible that Aleksandar Vucic will get involved as his own government depends on the next IMF arrangement.