Third quarter is key: New increase in gas and heating prices coming in July will nullify pension increases in Sarajevo Canton

For NAP writes: Almir Bečarević, gas and energy expert and former minister in the KS Government

The increase in oil prices on the world market in the last two months will also affect the price of gas in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The price of Russian gas for Bosnia and Herzegovina is still calculated according to the oil formula, based on oil and petroleum derivatives in the past nine months.

When we look at the increase in gas prices since the beginning of the year and the newly proposed increase from April 1, we get that the price of gas will be increased by a total of approximately 8.5%.

In the average calculation of oil for the past nine months, the increase in oil barrels in the last two months had a small impact on the price of gas. Therefore, this increase in gas prices is also relatively small because the main impact on the price of gas will only occur from the third quarter.

The price of heating in Sarajevo has just been adjusted to the increase in the price of gas from January 1, 2026.

In the event that the Government of the Federation of BiH approves the newly proposed gas price from Energoinvest, it would then remain for the Government of Sarajevo Canton to adjust the heating price to that increase, just as it adjusted it to the increase in the price of gas from January 1.

Now we come to the key third quarter!

If oil prices remain at this level in the next three months (April-June), 90-100 US dollars, it is realistic to expect the main impact on the Russian gas price. This impact will be greater than the sum of the increases for the first two quarters of 8.5%.

With the increase in gas prices from the third quarter, which will be serious and significant, the Government of Sarajevo Canton will have to increase heating prices again.

With the gas and heating prices obtained in this way, the heating season will begin.

Summary:
‣ the price of gas will be higher from April (a total of 8.5% with January);
‣ the price of gas will be seriously and significantly higher from July (provided that the oil price remains between 90-100 US dollars until July);
‣ the price of heating has already been increased and adjusted to the January gas price increase;
‣ the price of heating should be adjusted two more times (April increase and July gas price increase).

Finally, the entire pension increase for 2026 will be nullified in Sarajevo Canton by this increase in the price of gas and heating. The increase in fuel, gas, and heating prices will lead to an incomparable cost compared to the increase in the minimum wage by 27 KM.

Note: In the event of the cessation of operations at Željezara Zenica and the transition of heating to operate solely with natural gas, I believe the price correction would be such that it is better not to even mention it.

My wish is that none of this happens, but it is better to know in advance if it does.