Experts predict lower coffee prices after significant growth in recent years

(Patria) - Some coffee industry experts are drawing parallels between the coffee and cocoa markets, predicting that coffee prices will fall in the coming months, similar to how cocoa prices sharply declined after this ingredient for chocolate production reached a record value in 2024.

The question of whether coffee will repeat the price drop of cocoa was the focus of last week's annual convention of the National Coffee Association in Tampa, Florida, writes Reuters.

- I would be shocked if that didn't happen - said Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, a subsidiary of Zaner.

- I think coffee is, in fact, the new cocoa - she added.

Cocoa prices in New York reached a record in December 2024 of over $12,000 per ton, after adverse weather conditions in producing countries reduced supply.

Just a year later, prices have fallen by more than 70 percent as consumers reduced their purchases of luxury chocolate.

Similarly, arabica coffee became more expensive due to bad weather and trade disruptions caused by US tariffs. However, the expected recovery of production in Brazil has led to a drop in prices this year.

Garner predicts that the price of coffee will fall to two dollars per pound by the end of the year, while Avere Commodities analyst Digby Beatson-Hird expects an even greater drop, to $1.80 per pound.