Stoltenberg stays, focus in Vilnius will be on the battle for the Arctic and enlargement of the alliance

Written by: Armin Sijamić

NATO is preparing for the summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12, which will also be attended by US President Joseph Biden. But even before the summit began, the alliance announced two important decisions that will likely be formally adopted at the summit.

As the summit in Lithuania approached, there was increasing discussion about whether Sweden would become a NATO member, a decision hinging on the approval of Turkey and Hungary. This has been the most talked-about issue in public since Sweden and Finland applied for membership. Finland was admitted in April, while Sweden remained in the waiting room.

The United States tried to convince members to admit Sweden to the alliance through an expedited procedure, but that task was not completed.

Alongside the issue of Sweden, NATO has been dealing with several important processes, with aid to Ukraine high on the list of priorities, so it is expected that Kyiv will receive significant assistance in Vilnius. In addition, two important processes were underway. One was primarily political – the appointment of the Secretary General, and the other was military – changing plans for troop deployment and reorganization into zones within the alliance.

Stoltenberg to lead the alliance for another year

Russia's aggression against Ukraine is the reason why Jens Stoltenberg is still NATO's Secretary General and will remain so until October next year. This Norwegian politician took up the position in 2014 and stayed for two four-year terms. Subsequently, due to the war in Ukraine, he received an additional two years of mandate, although he did not want it.

At the end of his second term, Stoltenberg spoke about stepping down, and the media reported that a job at the Central Bank of Norway awaited him. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, NATO's plans regarding the 14th Secretary General changed, when Stoltenberg leaves. There were various proposals for his successor.

Mentioned were the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May, former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, former Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, former Dutch Minister of Defence Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, former Belgian Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sophie Wilmes, with the idea that a woman would finally lead the alliance.

In recent months, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, former Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace, and Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren have been mentioned.

The multitude of potential candidates for the new Secretary General reflected interests within the alliance, so the media wrote about Poland's desire for someone from the Baltics to take over the function, about the Romanians' desire to have a Secretary General and thus demonstrate their growing military power, about London's desire to lead the alliance as a nuclear power outside the EU, as well as proposals for Canada to get the position and for it to be the first Secretary General not from Europe. The United States, the main power within the alliance, knew that in such circumstances it was not wise to choose a new Secretary General, because it requires consultations and harmonization, for which NATO now has no time.

During a recent visit to Washington, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lobbied for his Defence Minister in front of cameras, but Biden did not support Wallace. It is obvious that Washington does not want to open this issue now, so the Norwegian will lead the alliance until October next year, which was officially confirmed in recent days.

Military issues

The US position to extend Stoltenberg's mandate becomes clearer after the statement by the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Rob Bauer. He spoke at a press conference and announced the biggest change in NATO military plans since the Cold War, if Russia decides to expand the conflict from Ukraine. He says that Russia has received a strong blow in Ukraine, but that it should not be underestimated and that it remains a "threat." Admiral Bauer believes that the Russian army is busy in Ukraine and its ground forces are exhausted, but that this does not apply to the navy
and air force.

NATO currently has about 40,000 troops deployed on its eastern flank, from Estonia to Romania, about a hundred aircraft fly every day in that area, and almost thirty ships are deployed. NATO now wants a larger presence. Bauer says the plans were made before Russia was weakened in the Ukrainian war and that NATO planned in accordance with Russian strength before the aggression on Ukraine.

According to new NATO military plans, three zones should be created: the Far North of Europe and the Atlantic, the zone north of the Alps, and the zone of Southern Europe. The goal is 300,000 troops ready to be deployed to NATO's eastern flank within a month. Bauer says NATO "needs more" money, exercises, troops, and production capacities. Finally, he says that Russia is "cautious" and "not seeking conflict" with the alliance.

NATO's future actions

From Bauer's announcements, it is clear that NATO will strengthen in the coming years, regardless of how long the war in Ukraine lasts. The alliance will likely admit new members. Specifically, NATO has "unfinished business" in the Balkans, Moldova, Ukraine, and the Caucasus. At this moment, the least likely is the expansion of the alliance towards the Caucasus (to which Russia would react strongly), and in Georgia, Moscow has created two para-states, as it previously did in Moldova.

While the war in Ukraine lasts, membership for Kyiv is also unlikely. Accordingly, in the southern zone that NATO is establishing, which is behind the line towards Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Kosovo remain. These three countries, together with Montenegro, have witnessed the presence of pro-Russian actors for years, and if Admiral Bauer is right when he says that Russian strength can be restored and that Moscow should not be underestimated, then NATO will have to pay special attention to this part of the world. Although NATO will likely seek new members there, the real geopolitical game will take place in the north of the continent, from the Baltic to the Arctic.

Therefore, NATO's focus will not be on the south and east of Europe when it comes to Russia, but on the north of the continent, because with Finland's membership, Russia's second most important city, Saint Petersburg, is only 160 kilometers from the alliance's border. Further north, a battle for the Arctic is underway where Russia has better starting positions, established bases, people, and equipment ready for extreme conditions. The Arctic has enormous natural resources that everyone wants to grab. Due to climate change, the ice is melting and creating the shortest sea route from Europe to East Asia.

The summit in Vilnius will shed additional light on these announced changes, and NATO will again send a message that it is more necessary to Europe than ever. Although there will be dissonant tones, messages of Western unity and expressed intentions to develop the alliance will certainly be sent. This means that in the coming years, regardless of the speed of resolving the issue of Sweden's membership and the duration of the war in Ukraine, NATO will be very present in European political, military, and economic currents, enriched by the experience of war on the borders of the alliance.