By Armin Sijamić
What has been speculated for months and hinted at between the lines in a number of Western media outlets has proven to be true – a kind of reckoning is underway in Kyiv within the political and military elite. President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, and appointed General Syrsky, who is ethnically Russian, to his position.
Since December last year, Ukraine has been going through difficult times militarily and politically. The assessments of many that the Russian army would collapse due to sanctions and battlefield losses have, for now, proven to be wrong. Moreover, Russian forces have gained new momentum and have captured Marinka, and these days they are threatening to capture Avdiivka – two important strongholds in the east of the country, which the two sides have been fighting for for almost ten years.
Russia's aggression is not subsiding, and Kyiv is facing problems on the front, as well as obvious Western fatigue with financing Ukraine.
Even before Donald Trump had the opportunity to take over the White House, Republicans raised objections to financing Ukraine. Without the help of the United States, Kyiv would only have the European Union and European countries left as possible sources of funding, and counting on tens of billions of euros every year from a disunited Brussels is certainly not a pleasing option.
The cessation of funding for Ukraine, or a significant reduction in the volume of funding, is Kyiv's main fear and Moscow's main hope. In recent months, all of Ukraine's political drama can be viewed in this context. It has already been confirmed that a large part of the West disagrees with many of Zelensky's moves, but he has already realized that Ukraine's defeat would also be the West's defeat, and therefore he is counting on further assistance.
The most popular figure and "Hero of Ukraine" has been dismissed
Zelensky's decision to dismiss General Zaluzhny, who is more popular than him among Ukrainians according to polls, and to later award him the order of "Hero of Ukraine" was news that resonated like a bomb in the West. Western officials have stated that they respect the decision of the civilian authorities in Kyiv, but many suspect that they do not have objections. Numerous reactions to the interview that American journalist Tucker Carlson had with Russian President Vladimir Putin around that time pushed the dismissal in Kyiv into the background, at least as far as the mainstream media is concerned.
Zaluzhny has gained sympathy in the West in recent months, simultaneously becoming a great military leader and a media figure who is unusual in many ways. One of the strangest episodes in his career was writing an extensive article for The Economist, and giving an interview in which he discussed why the Ukrainian summer offensive, which he led, failed. There are probably few similar examples in the history of modern warfare where the commander-in-chief of an army behaves in such a manner.
Zaluzhny claimed at the time that the war was entering a stalemate, as technology was determining the course of the war, and the winner would be the one who endured longer, without breaking enemy lines. Ukraine's Deputy Head of Office, Ihor Zhovkva, said at the time that he – if he were in the army – would not comment to journalists and the public about what was happening on the battlefield, or what could happen there, because by doing so, he was "encouraging the aggressor's actions."
Zelensky eventually dismissed Zaluzhny, and the media reported that he had previously asked his general to resign, and had offered him the position of ambassador to London. Zaluzhny, according to the same sources, rejected both offers. The opposition reacted fiercely, even questioning the competence of the new army commander.
The dismissal and subsequent award is Zelensky's attempt to return the entire process to normalcy, i.e., to present the change at the top of the army as something that has happened elsewhere, because some armies change their top leader in the midst of war, seeking new successes and new visions in warfare.
What worries Ukrainians and the West is that this decision may be the result of Zelensky's dissatisfaction with Zaluzhny as a recognizable political figure, rather than dissatisfaction with his war successes. Information that some circles in Kyiv are considering Zaluzhny as a presidential candidate in the next elections, when Zelensky calls them, shows that the dilemma is not unfounded.
General Syrsky, the Russian nicknamed "Snow Leopard"
Perhaps the dismissal of Zaluzhny was a surprise, but the appointment of his successor was expected. The then Commander of the Ground Forces, General Oleksandr Syrsky, is a seasoned warrior, a man who has fought on the Ukrainian side since the beginning of the rebellion in the east of the country, even though he is ethnically Russian and despite his family members living in Russia, he earned the nickname "Snow Leopard." Zelensky described him as the "most experienced commander," adding that the change was not about "politics" and said that Syrsky would lead a "new management team" formed after "dozens of conversations with commanders at various levels."
According to Ukrainian media, Syrsky is close to Zelensky, but at the same time, he is a commander criticized by some for the "brutal discipline" he imposes on the troops. As early as April 2022, he was declared "Hero of Ukraine," just as Zaluzhny was recently declared. At the beginning of the Russian aggression, he commanded the defense of Kyiv, liberated parts of the Kharkiv region, and lost the battle for Bakhmut. Together with him, Zelensky appointed a whole team of new officers to assist Syrsky.
After his appointment, Syrsky announced on social media and largely repeated what a politician wants to hear – care for the soldier on the front line will be a priority. What Syrsky intends to do is unclear, but perhaps the best help for the soldiers would be new weapons and a reduction in corruption within their own ranks. However, securing funds for the war is the responsibility of Zelensky and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, a Crimean Tatar who came to that position at the president's request.
After that, Syrsky stated that the Ukrainian army is transitioning from offensive to defensive operations, as this will inflict heavy losses on the Russians, force them to stop, and exhaust their human and other potential.
Zelensky – just a politician?
With the changes at the head of the Ministry of Defense and the army commander, the Jewish president of Ukraine has handed over the keys to the country's survival to a Muslim Tatar and an ethnic Russian. These appointments are certainly the best confirmation of how much Moscow slanders when it accuses the leadership of Ukraine of "Nazism." Therefore, the political aspect of these decisions by the Ukrainian president cannot be ruled out.
The dismissal of popular commanders and previously the Minister of Defense shows that Zelensky is taking on more and more responsibility, i.e., he is transforming into the most responsible person for Ukraine's ultimate victory or defeat, a role that is most often attributed to military generals.
The dismissal of Zaluzhny, as well as a number of other generals, could be a turning point on the battlefield, meaning the new military leadership will have the opportunity to show what they can do. Their performance will be evaluated in the coming period. Until then, the dismissals and appointments could cause a major political earthquake in Ukraine. Whether Zelensky will succeed in his intentions will also depend on the West's attitude towards Ukraine, i.e., the amount of aid sent to Kyiv. Zelensky, Umerov, and Syrsky alone cannot defeat Russia.
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