Ankara's Decision to Suspend Trade Relations with Israel Could Shake the Middle East

Written by: Armin Sijamić

Yesterday, Ankara decided to suspend all trade activities with Israel due to the violence against Palestinians in Gaza, Turkish officials said. Although some believe that this decision came late, given that the war in the Gaza Strip has been ongoing for seven months, it raises numerous questions and dilemmas for Israel and the United States - Turkey's NATO ally.

Since the Israeli military launched its operation in the Gaza Strip, Turkey has been one of the loudest critics. The Turkish leadership has also spoken with Hamas leaders, a group some consider terrorist. Thus, Turkey, like Iran, has deeply entered the Arab question. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan labeled Israel a "terrorist state" and accused its leadership of genocide in Gaza.

Many have asked what benefit the Palestinians derive from this and why Turkey does not do more. Some believe this is one of the reasons for the defeat of Erdogan's party in this year's local elections, following a convincing victory in the presidential and parliamentary elections.

But things are much more complex, as Turkey is in a position where it must weigh the interests of the West, Russia, Iran, the Arabs, and other actors in the Middle East. Amid the war in the Gaza Strip, Turkey gave the green light for Sweden to join NATO, part of a political trade that allowed Ankara access to American weapons, especially aircraft it has used for decades. At the same time, Turkey tried to align its views with the administration of Joseph Biden, so the new government of this country includes several ministers and officials who have great prestige in the West.

Also, one should recall Turkey's attempt to deliver aid to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in May 2010, when ten Turkish humanitarian workers were killed by Israeli commandos. At that time, Turkish-Israeli relations fell to their lowest point in decades.

Israel's refusal to grant Turkey permission to deliver humanitarian aid this time was also a trigger. Turkey recently imposed trade restrictions on Israel due to, as it said, Israel's refusal to allow Ankara to participate in airdrop operations for the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu's "No"

The behavior of Benjamin Netanyahu's government raises numerous questions. The rejection of allies' appeals shows that this right-winger is playing the card of a tough leader ready for any conflict. Recall Biden's appeals and many visits to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while domestically things are heading in an unwanted direction ahead of the November elections.

There is no doubt that this behavior is bad for Israel, as shown by this decision of Turkey, which had close ties with Tel Aviv for decades, even strategic ones, for example, in strengthening Azerbaijan.

Israel's refusal to allow Turkey any influence in the Gaza Strip was apparently no longer tolerable in Ankara. In April, as we already mentioned, Ankara imposed restrictions on 54 product groups in trade with Israel, to which Israel responded with countermeasures. This, one might say, symbolic move did not harm Israel much, but Ankara's warning was apparently not heeded.

Additionally, on Wednesday, Ankara announced it would join South Africa's genocide lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Complete ban until further notice

Turkey decided to suspend all trade ties with Israel, meaning all imports and exports. The volume of trade between the two countries last year was $6.8 billion. "Export and import transactions related to Israel have been halted and cover all products," the Turkish Ministry of Trade announced. "Turkey will strictly and decisively implement these new measures until the Israeli government allows an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza," they added.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Ankara has begun blocking Israeli imports and exports through Turkish ports, which is a particular concern for Tel Aviv. Namely, Israel receives oil from Azerbaijan via the port of Ceyhan. However, there is still no information on which ports the ban applies to, or whether Ankara has also prevented Israeli trade with third countries in its ports.

Katz attacked Erdogan. "This is how a dictator behaves, disregarding the interests of the Turkish people and businessmen and ignoring international trade agreements," he posted on X. Katz said he instructed the ministry to work on creating alternatives for trade with Turkey, focusing on domestic production and imports from other countries.

If this suspension persists, it will harm the economies of Turkey and especially Israel, whose ships in the Red Sea have been targeted for months by Yemeni Houthi missiles and drones, and a few days before the attack on Israel in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran seized an Israeli ship. This will further increase the cost of goods and services in Israel, as trade routes are reduced and depend on several Arab states, the United States, and European allies that are quite geographically distant.

Political earthquake

Ankara's decision will not break the Israeli economy, but it has political implications. First, Turkey is a NATO member, and taking radical measures against that country is unlikely. Second, the Turkish government changed its approach under public pressure, which puts pressure on Arab regimes that are out of step with the will of the people regarding Palestine. And third, perhaps most importantly, Turkey has shown that it can act independently in the Middle East, which poses a problem for the West and other actors.

That Turkey will act more independently is evidenced by the recent announcement of an offensive in Iraq against Kurdish militias, which Washington often opposes, as well as the postponement of the meeting between Erdogan and Biden at the White House. Although there is no public information on why the meeting, which was supposed to be held on May 9, was "postponed," the media claims it happened at the guest's request. This is the first postponement of a visit to the US president by Erdogan since 2019, when Donald Trump was in the White House.

That Erdogan has new plans is also indicated by the fact that yesterday he received Ozgur Ozel, the leader of the opposition CHP, in his party's premises, the first meeting with leaders of this party in the last eight years. "This meeting embodies the new style of politics advocated by our party, in which we negotiate and simultaneously challenge (the government)," said Sezgin Tanrikulu, a member of parliament from the predominantly Kurdish province of Diyarbakir. The meeting lasted more than ninety minutes, and Erdogan and Ozel exchanged gifts. Erdogan promised a return visit to the CHP premises.

How far Ankara will go in banning trade with Israel also depends on Tel Aviv, which has turned even the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip into a serious problem. At the same time, Ankara will listen to the reaction of the business community and citizens who will feel the consequences of the severance of economic ties, after months of complaints that Turkey should do more for Palestine. As another US ally distances itself from Israel, Washington must seek an end to the war in the Gaza Strip, because Netanyahu's policy is causing increasing damage to Israel, the United States, and the West as a whole.

In May, the Palestinians count 34,000 dead, mostly women and children, and several times more wounded. Material damage is measured in billions of dollars, and the United Nations announced yesterday that the destruction will not be possible to rebuild until 2040. This is a fact that is increasingly difficult to ignore.