By Armin Sijamić
American-Russian negotiations regarding Ukraine, and then about Eastern Europe and the future of relations on the continent, have been ongoing for weeks. French President Emmanuel Macron, in these unfavorable circumstances, is trying to improve European positions and restore some of the glory of an old power to his country.
If Macron could choose when to intensely engage in foreign policy in parts of the world where French influence is limited, it certainly wouldn't be now. There is a political crisis at home, and his party is not performing as he wishes. Furthermore, his popularity is currently far from its best days.
But Macron must deal with Eastern Europe, trying to extract the maximum for the European Union from the United States and Russia, which, by all accounts, could be, along with Ukraine, the biggest loser of the one-on-one agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
This is an obligation for Paris. Firstly, France is the only nuclear power in the European Union. Secondly, Macron is testing two ideas he has been working on. He has long advocated for the formation of European Union armed forces, without the participation of the United States, and then he launched the European Political Community (EPC), which includes countries that are not members of the European Union.
Macron Wants to Counter Both Putin and Trump
Since the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Macron has tried to establish France as a factor in Eastern Europe. This did not end well. Many remember his meeting with Putin in Moscow, when the host seated him at the opposite end of a table ten meters long.
Macron then sided with the administration of US President Joseph Biden and, along with other European countries, supported Ukraine. He sent long-range SCALP missiles to Kyiv, making France one of the countries that particularly angered Moscow. With these missiles, the Ukrainian army has hit some valuable Russian targets in Ukraine and Russia.
He didn't stop there. He spoke about sending the French army to Ukraine, specifically mentioning the city of Odesa, which many believe could be the key to the war in Ukraine. Odesa is a city on the Black Sea and Ukraine's only operational port, meaning Ukraine's access to the sea.
With Trump's return to the White House, things have changed rapidly. Official Washington has since been unwilling to involve European allies in negotiations with Moscow about Ukraine. Even earlier, the Kremlin told Washington that Europeans were not needed in these negotiations.
Macron tried to convince Trump that European powers should be at the negotiating table, but success seems limited for now because the White House still lacks a broader picture of a deal without its allies with Russia, especially in the context of China and its intention to focus on the Pacific once the war in Eastern Europe ends.
At the core of the Washington-Kyiv negotiations are Ukraine's rare earth metals, sought after by major American technology companies. Negotiations have been ongoing for weeks about who will get the right to use them, and Trump says they should go to the Americans as a guarantee and in gratitude for the aid sent to Kyiv.
France has also entered this discussion. Yesterday, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu stated that negotiations with Ukraine on this matter have been ongoing since October and that the French industry, particularly the arms industry, also needs rare minerals "in the next thirty or forty years".
Lecornu also said that France proposes that Europeans take care of Ukraine's security. "This is an idea we intend to propose to European countries," he said, explaining the proposal for Europe to create arms reserves for the Ukrainian army. "The purpose of the current discussions is to ensure that the Ukrainian army can continue to defend itself, not only now but also when the fighting stops".
European (Non)Agreement
The French plan to help Ukraine and rely on European forces is currently supported by Germany and several other countries. But things are starting to get complicated. France's policy towards Ukraine is also supported by the current UK government, as is likely the aforementioned European Political Community. However, London was against European armed forces without the United States, and loyal American allies, such as Poland and most Scandinavian and Baltic states, should be added to the list.
Macron, whose presidential term expires in two years, has little time. But besides him, there are few leaders in Europe who would dare to try what he is doing. The leadership crisis in Europe has been present for decades, and it is not uncommon to hear assessments that the European Union does not know what to do with itself, let alone how to compete with geopolitical giants like the United States, China, Russia, India...
Macron is also trying this outside the European Union. He is one of the few European leaders who tries to have a strong presence in almost all Balkan countries. Macron's offer includes energy projects, armaments, investments, military missions, special envoys, strengthening the EPC...
France understands that its influence is limited, especially its resources. The fact that even such a France, along with Germany, is by far the most powerful within the European Union speaks to the state of the old European powers. But this relative weakness can be an advantage for France, especially when talking about Europe, where common projects of small states have been favored for decades, and where some shy away from the idea of a new hegemon emerging on the continent.
That is why Macron has repeatedly offered Europeans joint projects, particularly insisting that they produce most of their combat systems. The French army relies on French ingenuity, which would mean not starting from scratch, i.e., joint investments could change the picture on the ground in a short time. The war in Ukraine is a unique opportunity, but also a danger that the European Union and European powers could sink into insignificance on the world political stage.
The transformation of France and other European countries into regional powers began after the end of World War II. In the last twenty years, European powers have also been losing ground in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Africa, while the US, Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and even smaller countries are strengthening their presence there.
This is all the more reason for Europeans to focus on their continent, sorting out the situation within the European Union and on its borders. Macron's stance that there will be no EU enlargement without internal reforms is well-known, and in recent years, a more robust French policy has been observed in countries bordering the bloc, even at the cost of confrontation.
Although France is not a dominant power in Europe, it should not be forgotten that this nuclear power is, among other things, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a member of NATO, a leading country in the European Union along with Germany, a major producer of weapons and various equipment, and recently the only European country seriously investing in artificial intelligence technology.
Macron's plan is being tested these days on the issue of Ukraine. Official Kyiv has not rejected the idea of relying on European powers, although they are aware that the US is currently the only real guarantee for Ukraine's security. Simply put, Putin militarily only fears Washington, aware that most European armies are in a desperate state. But if Macron succeeds in finding countries willing to work on strengthening the European factor, then the situation fundamentally changes, while opponents count on those European countries that prioritize the United States. For Macron and France, this would be a success, even in the short term, if it were enough to "survive" Trump's mandate.
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