How long will HDZ wait for 'spengavanje' to force Nikšić to yield?

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

The political scene in the Federation of BiH in recent months shows a very clear, but unpleasant truth: formal Prime Minister Nermin Nikšić, despite his position, has no real control over the Government. While he states positions, provides clarifications, and "principally" refuses to vote for fiscal documents, key decisions are actually made from the shadows, through HDZ BiH and the ministries it controls.

The latest example is Nikšić's refusal to participate in the work of the BiH Fiscal Council until the BiH Constitutional Court decides on the legality of the RS Government. He was fiercely attacked by Borjana Krišto, Chairperson of the BiH Council of Ministers.

The Prime Minister claims that his stance protects the legal framework and fiscal discipline, and that he is awaiting the Constitutional Court's decision regarding the legality of the RS Government. However, we recall that, in parallel, his Minister of Justice, Vedran Škobić, an HDZ cadre, is negotiating with the RS Government and showing "the importance of dialogue" with those whom Nikšić considers illegitimate!? This clearly shows a discrepancy between statements and actual processes: Nikšić speaks, HDZ decides.

The situation becomes even clearer in the context of current affairs, including the "Spengavanje" case. Although many actors are involved, the Prime Minister is not formally mentioned in the investigation, led by POSKOK under Hrvoje Čabrajić, allegedly close to HDZ. This raises the question of why HDZ is protecting Nikšić. The answer is obvious: they need him as a prime minister who legitimizes the Government, while they hold real power through their cadres and ministries.

And there is no end in sight for this affair. Journalist Avdo Avdić also announces the publication of new messages for tomorrow, January 11th, which, as announced, show how the federal Prime Minister Nikšić used the FUP to overthrow the Government of Tuzla Canton and how Nikšić's friend and business partner of the Prime Minister's brother and son is withdrawing millions of euros from Autoceste FBiH and transferring them to Zagreb.

And it is precisely in the context of the 'spengavanje' affair that Nikšić's policy should be viewed.

Because formal principledness, public statements, sometimes even criticism of HDZ cadres, have never led Nikšić to have real control over the Government.

Consistency? Almost none. While Nikšić refuses to vote for fiscal frameworks, HDZ manipulates the budget and key decisions, directing resources and negotiations towards its interests.

How long will it take Nikšić to change his mind regarding the "vote that HDZ expects"? It is difficult to say precisely, but experience shows that when "shadow" politics requires alignment, formal prime ministers like Nikšić rarely have the power to refuse pressure. It is clear that his role resembles a media figure more than a government manager, while HDZ and Dragan Čović act as the real architects of the Federation of BiH's policy.

Prime Minister Nikšić can maintain his moral and procedural stances as much as he wants, but as long as HDZ controls the ministries, the Government of FBiH is in practice in the hands of Čović and his cadres. It is only a matter of time before Nikšić's "principled position" encounters real political power and how long the public will watch a figure who manages through the media, while the real moves come from the shadows.