Polls in the Service of the Election Campaign

During this election campaign, as before every election, results of polls from various agencies researching public opinion are being published. 

Statistics show that rarely any poll is accurate in the end, and the final confirmed results differ significantly from the initial poll results. 

As has been the case so far, it will turn out that polls are manipulated, not understood correctly, and parties often use doctored analyses to send messages to other political parties as they please. Poll results are used aggressively to attract undecided voters to the proclaimed favorites. 

Unfortunately, Bosnia and Herzegovina is very far from the precise and thorough American polls during presidential elections, where candidate popularity can be tracked hour by hour.

Unfortunately, polls in Bosnia and Herzegovina are used to create a wrong perception in the public and thus open space for certain political options. It often happens in Bosnia and Herzegovina that real research cannot represent or predict the true and final picture of the electoral process. Experts have clearly stated that the thinking of the common man is often influenced by a feeling of discomfort, which causes the minority, i.e., voters of smaller parties, to gravitate towards larger and stronger parties.

This is precisely the effect that more powerful parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina are counting on. 

Thus, a Valicon agency poll was recently published in which, as citizens will notice on social networks, even the percentages do not add up!?  According to the poll results, 107 percent of citizens would not vote, and 87 percent of citizens would vote!
Valicon's polls from September 2014 are also proof that they did not predict any trend correctly, let alone party ratings.

According to those results, Emir Suljagić won the 2014 elections, but in reality, he was only third. For example, they gave the Democratic Front 100 percent more than they received in the elections. They incorrectly predicted that Bakir Hadžiomerović was twice as strong as the SDP.

Here are some more results from 2014: SDA - Valicon 17% (elections 27.7%), SBB Valicon 12% (Elections 14.7%), SDP Valicon 7% (elections 10.14%), HDZ Valicon 7% (Elections 11.93%).

When it comes to elections for the Presidency members, the predictions were as follows: Emir Suljagić (Valicon 25% - elections 15%), Bakir Izetbegović (Valicon 16% - elections 24.7%), Fahrudin Radončić (Valicon 14%, elections 26%), Bakir Hadžiomerović (Valicon 13%, elections 10%).

This shows that there is no need to publish agency research in Bosnia and Herzegovina before elections. In the end, the differences between predictions and results show that it was about manipulating public opinion. Finally, perhaps agency research should therefore be an internal party matter, and not something that turns into part of the election campaign.