Dodik's secret plan: Why did he insist on participation of the AF in Day of RS?

By: Nedzad Ahatovic, Military Analyst

The most recent public debate of political officials on the topic of participation of the 3rd Infantry Regiment of BH Armed Forces in marking the nonconstitutional and illegitimate holiday the 9th of January, represents a real picture of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its structures which, running away from responsibility for various corruption affairs, are pushing the country into open conflict.

The role of president Nikolic in that context represents the actual position of the official Belgrade as regards Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is founded on their claim that our country is an artificial creation and international project with no future.  

The statement of Serbian prime minister Vucic that Bosnian Serbs should be allowed to preserve what they had fought for, only confirms that there is no differences in opinion between him, Dodik, Nikolic and Ivanic. They are all on the same page as regards, sooner or later, an accession of the BH territory gained by force and genocide to Republic Serbia. At the same time, the insisting of the RS political establishment upon participation of the BH Armed Forces in marking the nonconstitutional holiday, proves one thing – that they were promised support from the outside for starting the process of dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

How else one could explain the attitude of Mladen Ivanic, the Chairman of Presidency BiH, who has been publicly talking about disobedience of members of AF BiH from RS, by which he consciously or subconsciously called for armed rebellion of the 3rd infantry regiment of the AF BiH. His stubborn insisting has gone as far as announcement a 'Solomon solution' for participation of the AF members in the marking of the nonconstitutional holiday. It will be interesting to see what Ivanic will have come up with. Whatever it may be, I hope it will not be a high price to pay for BiH with regard to peace and stability that he often refers to when speaking in public.

Having said that, I think that insisting on presence of the Armed Forces BiH at marking of the nonconstitutional and illegitimate holiday is motivated by more important things than mere spite.

The intention of the RS political establishment is to diminish the purpose and value of the Armed Forces BiH and consequently, to reduce their capability to defend the country by direct compromising of the entire chain of command established by the Defense law of BiH. Therefore, somebody from the outside is deliberately rocking the foundations of the most successful international project in BiH with the ultimate goal of a complete destabilization of BiH.  

The ultimate goal is to give the RS police wide authority via National Assembly of Republika Srpska in respect of defense of that entity, because the Armed Forces BiH, as Dodik likes to say, are 'under NATO control'. In that light, The RS government allocated 6 million KM to equipping special police forces (RS) with combat infantry vehicles and other heavy weapons.  

That's why the reaction of the NATO Commander in BiH, general Giselle Wilz, is understandable; she said that participation of any member of the Armed Forces BiH in any part of the program 'Day of Republika Srpska) on January 9, would constitute violation of Defense law which would as a consequence require taking disciplinary measures against offenders, including dismissal from the military service, and that such acts could be viewed in the context of Annex 1A of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in BiH.  

The Annex 1A stipulates 'All armed forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina will act in accordance with the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.'

In case the political establishment of the RS, encouraged by the outside promises, decides to challenge OHR, EUFOR and eventually the NATO to react, we may expect destabilization of the general situation in BiH, to the benefit of Milorad Dodik.

Having said that, he is aware of the tightening circle around him and that, it is a matter of time when he will have to bend under the pressure and respond to the Prosecutor's Office of BiH with regard to Bobar Bank, Birca, Pavlovic Bank etc.

To determine his criminal liability in various affairs in the RS makes political situation in BiH critically unstable, as Milorad Dodik is prepared for anything, sparking conflict included. Anything to avoid ending up in jail. Therefore, it would be wise for Banja Luka to keep it down, and for the RS politicians to aim their rhetoric towards compromise instead of blackmailing and infantile threats. They should understand that by doing so, they only protect Milorad Dodik personally and not the RS entity.  

Therefore, it would be good if the RS politicians proposed a trade-off solution to overcome this charade of marking an illegitimate and nonconstitutional holiday, which clearly could not presume the participation of the AF BiH members. Otherwise, in addition to the support from the outside, the destiny of the RS entity as administrative unit in BiH will be inextricably linked to the destiny of its current president.

Any such situation would place BiH in a preconflict state where only one spark could fire it up. Nobody in BiH needs that, the least those who had been through the calvary in the past. Another conflict would only benefit suspected criminals such as Dodik and his lookalikes, whose interests agree with interests of some outside factors who want to test determination of NATO, and who are in that context willing to pay the price in form of human lives, playing hard with hardly achieved peace in the Balkans.  

That's why it will be interesting to hear the thoughts of the Russian ambassador to BiH on this matter.