VUČIĆ'S PLAN, DODIK'S EXECUTION: Is the property law Belgrade's stake in solving the Kosovo knot?

By: Rasim Belko

The entity he leads does not want to share property with Bosnia and Herzegovina, because wars were fought over territory and ownership of it, and Milorad Dodik is opening the eyes of those who believe something has changed since the war was stopped by Dayton.

But the war only began with Dayton; we saved our lives, but we could lose the state, because the continuity of attempts by the authorities in the entity of Republika Srpska to seize state property has lasted since the agreement stopped the armed attempt to do so.

Despite all the rulings that leave no doubt that Republika Srpska has no right to interfere in the matter of property of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik is increasingly imposing and pushing this into the daily political agenda. However, this time his attack on the state comes at a time when the ground is sensitive to tremors, and the final outcome of the situation's development could be fatal for the entire region.

Undoubtedly, Dodik has seized the momentum to try to disinherit Bosnia and Herzegovina through the back door. However, the SNSD leader is aware that immediately after the possible adoption of the law on state property, which is being discussed today, appeals and new decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH will follow, which has repeatedly annulled the anti-state activities of the NSRS.

And in this, the real background of Dodik's attempt is revealed. The real intention of Dodik and Aleksandar Vučić is to drag the entity of Republika Srpska into the Kosovo story and further raise tensions.

This is also revealed by Dodik's appearance on Pink last night, where he said he is in continuous contact with Vučić and that the RS, like all Serbs in the region, is ready to help Serbs in Kosovo, who are raising new barricades every week. Vučić has set off on a dangerous path; no one from the international community has seriously pointed out to him where this could lead Serbia. Just as no one from that international community reacts to Dodik's actions. And it is obvious that this has been used to start an all-Serb struggle, not for the return of Kosovo within Serbia's borders, but for creating a mini Republika Srpska within Kosovo's territory, so that through that territory and its institutions, Belgrade could undermine Pristina and destabilize the situation.

Because there is no doubt that Dodik does not act without the control and consent of Aleksandar Vučić, so the law on state property can also be viewed in this light. Dodik first managed to gain a political advantage by forcing his new coalition partners to present him to the West as a new, rebooted politician. Those partners of his react quietly, sporadically pointing out the consequences, and the overall picture suits Dodik because the West does not touch him either.

The danger of dragging Bosnia and Herzegovina into the Kosovo knot has been pointed out several times from these pages, and today it carries special weight given the aggression against Ukraine. The fact that within a span of about ten days we will have two clearly visible unconstitutional moves by Dodik, and that neither the OHR nor the Quint nor anyone from the European Union reacts to them, points to a dangerous silence that could turn into a deadly explosion.

The story about January 9 and the property law could therefore serve as an excellent smokescreen for Vučić, provided by Dodik, which will ultimately allow Belgrade maneuvers to further intensify destabilization in Kosovo.

Because, while in Kosovo he seeks an option to get a community of municipalities as a mini entity, in Bosnia and Herzegovina Vučić, through Dodik, is trying to turn the entity into a state. This puts Vučić in a better negotiating position because he will have something to offer the international community, that is, he will also have what he asks for in return.

Given how that international community has behaved so far, it is not excluded that Vučić offers to remove the barricades in Kosovo in exchange for the concept of a composed state in BiH, which he would get if the property law passes. On the other hand, perhaps more likely, Vučić will launch a mini-offensive on Bosnia and Herzegovina and then offer for Dodik to abandon the anti-state laws, but for Serbia to be given concessions in Kosovo.

Official Zagreb has already shown several times how the deceived Croatian people in BiH are excellently used to gain concessions on other fronts through manipulation and destabilization. Vučić is neither naive nor stupid; he knows well how to use even the smallest option to shuffle the cards and get what he wants.

The Kosovo issue is much broader than Jarinje and Zubin Potok, and its resolution will greatly resonate throughout the entire Balkan issue. In this context, Dodik's maneuver on state property will likely prove to be Vučić's key card.

Because the international community, perhaps blind or perhaps (maliciously) intentional, obviously easily tolerates unconstitutional actions across the Balkans, especially in Bosnia.