What after the Israeli attack on Iran and why are the US elections important for its epilogue?

By: Armin Sijamić

On Saturday, Iran attacked Israel, which the world had been expecting since the beginning of October, after Iranian missiles rained down on the territory of its regional rival. Israel's attack was different from this Iranian one and heralds a continuation of the conflict between the two states, while the administration of US President Joseph Biden is helping its ally and trying to prevent a war that will engulf the entire Middle East.

After Iran's April and October attacks on Israel, an attack occurred in the opposite direction. The attack was in the air and everyone knew it would happen, and a confidential US document with details of the attack, or rather Israeli plans, recently appeared in the public. The United States has opened an investigation into the incident, while speculation abounds about the target and who might have leaked Israel's plans.

But even without that incident, it was clear that Israel was preparing an attack and that the US would help it. First, expensive and rare American THAAD systems were delivered to Israel to protect it from new Iranian attacks, along with American crews. Then, American fighter jets flew to American bases across the Middle East. So, it was only a matter of time before the attack happened.



At the insistence of the United States, Israel did not target nuclear facilities or the oil industry. Tehran promised to target such facilities in Israel if they were attacked in Iran. Fearing the spread of war in the Middle East, the US decided to somehow establish the rules of the game in the confrontation between the two regional powers.

What did Israeli planes hit?

After the Israeli attack on Iran, there is less data, especially publicly available footage, than about the Iranian attacks in April and early October. The Israeli authorities were also quite secretive. Claiming they hit what they targeted, they said they considered they had retaliated against Iran for the previous mentioned attacks and warned that they would attack again if Tehran retaliated.

From what various sources report, it can be concluded that dozens of Israeli planes entered the airspace of Jordan and Syria, and when they were over Iraq, they launched missiles towards Iran. In doing so, some claim, they also targeted part of the air defense system of Syria, which is an ally of Iran.

But there are no details about this, just as there are no details about how the US helped Israel in this attack. It would be naive to think that the American military, after shooting down Iranian missiles flying towards Israel, would abandon its ally in this attack, which was essentially about saving the reputation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli army. In that regard, the attack was similar to Iran's April attack.

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Iran wants a new dynamic of relations in the Middle East with its attack on Israel

By: Armin SijamićAfter years of threats to directly attack Israel, Tehran did so on the night of April 13-14. That date will be remembered in history as one of those dates that mark the beginning of the end of an era or the beginning of a new one.

What is known is that Israel targeted sites in the provinces of Ilam and Khuzestan, which border Iraq, and targets around Tehran, which are about 500 kilometers from those provinces. Israel allegedly targeted military bases from which missiles were launched at the country in the two mentioned attacks, and places where fuel and components for those missiles are produced.

Satellite images then appeared in the media showing that some damage was done in certain locations, meaning some facilities were hit. Iran admitted that two soldiers were killed, and later two more wounded died. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the effects of the attack should neither be exaggerated nor minimized and announced an Iranian response, without further details.

Israel's or Iran's (non)success?

The Iranians, although their pride was hurt once again, could be satisfied with the outcome of the attack. It seems that the Iranian air defense, based on Russian, Chinese, and domestic systems, reacted well to the best missiles from the West, assuming Israel used its strongest assets.

The Israeli opposition did not hide its disappointment with the outcome of the attack. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said that Iran "should have paid a much higher price." Writing on social network X, he said that "the decision not to attack strategic and economic targets in Iran was wrong," adding that Iran leads the "axis of evil" and should "pay a high price for its belligerence."

Head of the Yisrael Beytenu party, Avigdor Lieberman, former Minister of Defense, said that Iran will continue to try to acquire nuclear weapons and will send profits from oil sales to its proxy forces, and condemned the government for "once again settling for public relations activities."

MP Tally Gotliv, from Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party, said that the limited attack represents a "surrender to the Biden administration" and a missed opportunity to derail Iran's nuclear ambitions, The Times of Israel reported.

In other words, the aforementioned trio believes that Israel should have responded more strongly and thus retaliated for the second Iranian attack, the one from October, which caused much more damage than the April one.

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Second Iranian attack on Israel: An introduction to a new phase of war or an agreement between regional actors?

By: Armin SijamićOn October 1st, Iran attacked Israel again, an event that had been looming for months. Everyone believed that the Iranian attack would happen, but few could have predicted when. The attack came at a time when...

There were also different views. Yair Golan, a former general and leader of the newly formed Democratic party, believes the attack was good because it "damaged Iran's defensive and offensive capabilities without drawing us into a war of attrition." He added that "American pressure has succeeded, or perhaps a military voice of reason has prevailed," and that if the exchange of fire with Tehran is over, "we can return to addressing the most important issue, which the government refuses to deal with, the hostage deal" in Gaza.

Therefore, part of the Israeli opposition demanded a stronger response to Iran. Part of the Israeli political elite sees Iran's nuclear program as the biggest threat to Israel and believes that limiting Iranian oil sales is a way to break Tehran, but that this is not possible with the current government, which is succumbing to pressure from the Biden administration. At the same time, those with military experience, at least in the case of General Yair Golan, warn of the consequences of a protracted war with another regional power.

Waiting for the US elections

Such differences within the Israeli political elite indicate how Netanyahu is conducting this war and that it is unclear to anyone how and when he will end it. It seems that Netanyahu is now waiting for the US elections, which will be held next week, and will decide how to conduct the war based on the outcome.

There is no doubt that Netanyahu is on Donald Trump's side, despite the help he received from the Biden administration, of which Kamala Harris is a part. Biden recently stated that Netanyahu should keep in mind that he is the president who has helped Israel the most in its history, and in early June he said that Netanyahu is prolonging the war in the Gaza Strip for his own political gain.



Netanyahu has had several conversations with Biden, Harris, and Trump, so he is aware of what policy will be pursued towards Israel in the coming period. It's just a question of from which day. Namely, if Kamala Harris wins, Biden will remain in power for another two and a half months until he hands over his duties. A Harris victory would mean that a potential policy change could happen on the first day after the election, and in the case of a Trump victory, one would have to wait at least until January 20th for a change.

The importance of every day for developments in the Middle East is highlighted by media reports from Monday that Israel is preparing a new attack on Iran, citing the recent drone attack by Lebanese Hezbollah on the house where Netanyahu lives as one of the reasons. On the other hand, Iran has promised revenge for Saturday's Israeli attack. Both sides know that US presidents have been prone to making difficult and important decisions in the final days of their term, building their political legacy and trying to correct their oversights and mistakes.