IMF: War in the Middle East Will Widen Economic Gaps in Latin America

(Patria) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday that the war in the Middle East is likely to widen economic disparities in Latin America and the Caribbean, Reuters reported.

The warning comes after the release of the updated World Economic Outlook by the global lender earlier this week, which forecasts that the Latin America and Caribbean region will grow by 2.3% in 2026, slightly revised from 2.4% in 2025, before accelerating to 2.7% in 2027.

Brazil, the region's largest economy, is projected to grow by 1.9% this year, while Mexico is expected to record growth of 1.6%.

The IMF stated that the region entered 2026 in relatively solid shape, with inflation in many countries near target and growth holding close to trend. The war has become a new external shock, causing shifts in market sentiment, tighter financing conditions, and sharp changes in commodity prices.

On Friday, the price of both Brent and WTI crude oil fell by more than ten percent after Iran's foreign minister stated that the passage for all commercial ships through the key Strait of Hormuz was open during the ceasefire. Prices for both benchmark crudes have risen by approximately 45% so far in 2026.
The IMF, which is holding its spring meetings in Washington this week, said the clearest winners, at least in the short term, are oil-producing countries.

Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela are among those that have benefited from higher energy prices, boosting export revenues, supporting public finances, and easing pressure on their external accounts.

However, the global lender warned that even in these economies, households will still be affected by higher fuel and food prices.