Čavalić and Bečarević: Energy crisis in Serbia with no major impact on BiH, fuel market stable, diversification key

(Patria) - The energy crisis in Serbia will not have a major impact on Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to BiH experts, while the US decision on extending the operating license for the Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS), which is under US sanctions due to Russian ownership, is awaited.

And if the license extension does not happen, it will lead to a complete shutdown of that refinery in Pančevo, which is currently in "quiet mode", which would cause a shortage of oil and a chain reaction of price increases in Serbia.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated today that the state has not yet received a signal from the US regarding NIS, and that the refinery will close on Saturday or Sunday.

- We are exiting "quiet mode" on Saturday or Sunday. The refinery will probably have to close then. We have not received a signal from the US that we will get a license to resume the production of oil derivatives. But what can we do - Vučić said.

- We will see what happens in the end. There are still many unknowns. It is possible that we will get the license at the last minute - there are some market signals, indications, but of course still informally - says economic expert Admir Čavalić for the Patria News Agency (NAP).

He points out that crises of this type usually end this way. However, he emphasizes that this is an exceptional energy crisis for Serbia.

- Of course, it has consequences for Bosnia and Herzegovina, to a lesser extent, as well as for Croatia and JANAF. Now there is pressure for Serbia to offer a long-term solution, so that this crisis is not repeated - says Čavalić.


Admir Čavalić

And when it comes to our country, he assesses that there is no better practical, regional lesson on why we need to diversify our energy supply sources.

- Energy diversification, i.e., decentralization of sources, is the foundation of energy stability. In this context, the pressure regarding the Southern Gas Interconnection should also be understood.

Naturally, with the more active involvement of the US in this project, an economic guarantee of our country's long-term stability is also being created. In the long term, the US should also tie partners to Republika Srpska (Brčko district is already tied, and now with the stock exchange in prospect) - added Čavalić.

Energy expert Almir Bečarević points out that it is difficult to connect the Southern Interconnection with the events at NIS.

- NIS is only oil processing, and the Southern Interconnection is gas. These two events are not correlated, really. As for NIS and the events surrounding the cessation of oil processing at the Pančevo refinery, it will not have any significant impact in BiH either.

For a month now, the delivery of derivatives from Pančevo to BiH has already stopped, and as we can see, it has not had an impact on the oil derivatives market in BiH - notes Bečarević.


Almir Bečarević

According to him, wholesalers and distributors have turned to other supply routes, so the market in BiH is well supplied with fuel.

The only thing that could have affected the fuel market is a possible slight price correction at those stations that changed suppliers, but even that is not significant.

When we look at everything, there have been no changes in the fuel market so far, and there should not be any in the near future - concluded Bečarević in an interview with NAP.

(D.K.)